Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Florida State Seminoles Odds, March Madness Pick

A March Madness battle between two schools from the same state will take place in Orlando on Thursday when the third-seeded Florida State Seminoles (25-8) take on the 14th-seeded Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (26-7) as double-digit favorites.

Despite being neighbors, they have only met once previously, with the Seminoles winning 58-53 but failing to cover the spread as 10.5-point chalk in the 2014 NIT. 

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 12-point favorites; the total is at 144, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 76.3-69.8 Eagles (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why Florida Gulf Coast can cover the spread

Florida Gulf Coast was the Cinderella of the Big Dance in 2013 when the team became the first-ever No. 15 seed to make it to the Sweet 16. The following year, the Eagles lost to Florida State in the NIT before returning to the NCAA tournament last season under head coach Joe Dooley.

They may be 0-5 straight up in their last five games versus ACC opponents, but they are also an impressive 7-0-1 against the spread in their previous eight games as underdogs of 12 points or more.

Why Florida State can cover the spread

Florida State will get the opportunity to play close to home even though the team is in the West Regional, which should be a huge advantage early on in the NCAA tournament. While Florida Gulf Coast would seem to have a similar edge, the Seminoles have a much bigger following and will likely have the most fans in Orlando.

In addition, they have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites of 12 points or more.

Smart betting pick

Being such big favorites like the Seminoles are in this spot is dangerous, especially when playing a team like the Eagles that can run up and down the floor.

Recent betting trends for both teams suggest a lower-scoring game that falls under the total. However, this looks to be a high-scoring affair like Florida Gulf Coast's tournament matchup with North Carolina last year. That game went over by only one point as the Tar Heels won 83-67, but this contest will surpass the total much more easily.

March Madness betting trends

Florida Gulf Coast is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog of 12 points or more.

The total has gone under in Florida Gulf Coast's last three games.

Florida State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of 12 points or more.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.