USC Trojans vs. Providence Friars Odds, Analysis, March Madness Betting Pick

Southern California men's basketball is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven times it's been the favorite, while Providence is 8-1 ATS in its last nine times as an underdog. In a rematch of a good first-round game from last year's NCAA tournament, the Trojans tangle with the Friars in the last of the First Four games Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio. 

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 71.3-69.7 Friars (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why USC can cover the spread

The Trojans won their last two games to finish 10-8 in Pac-12 play and one game in the conference tournament. Most recently USC trailed rival UCLA by 13 early in the second half of the conference tournament quarterfinals last Thursday and pulled to within a bucket with four minutes to go, but it couldn't quite complete the comeback.

Nonetheless, following a four-season drought, Southern Cal is at the Big Dance for the second year in a row.

The Trojans have four guys averaging at least 12 points per game. They're also shooting 74 percent from the free-throw line, which is pretty good among college teams. And defensively they're holding opponents to 43 percent field-goal shooting.

Why Providence can cover the spread

Providence won its last six games to finish 10-8 in Big East play, then ran into a tough draw and lost to Creighton in the quarters of the Big East tournament last Thursday, 70-58. The Friars led that game at the half 30-27, but a cold start to the second half proved costly. Still, with its at-large bid, Providence is playing in the NCAA tournament for the fourth season in a row.

Offensively the Friars can spread it around, with four guys averaging at least 11 points per game. They're also shooting 37 percent from three-point range. And defensively, Providence is holding foes to under 33 percent from beyond the arc.

Smart betting pick

These teams met in the first round of last year's tournament, when Providence nipped USC on a bucket with one second left, 70-69. This season the Friars are 8-8 straight up against teams that made the NCAA tournament while being 12-4 ATS. Meanwhile, the Trojans are only 4-6 SU and 3-6 ATS versus tournament qualifiers. The smart pick here is Providence.

March Madness betting trends

Providence is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.

The total has gone under in nine of Providence's last 12 games in March.

USC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.