NCAA Tournament 2017 Bubble Watch: What to Watch for on Friday

Bubble teams are running out of chances to enhance their NCAA tournament resumes, but the schools still alive in conference championship week have reached an important round.

From this point forward, any victory by a major conference squad is a quality win. Mid-major teams are simply trying to match pace and avoid a bad loss before the finals.

Unfortunately for programs like Illinois, Iowa and Marquette, their conference tourneys ended on Thursday. Conversely, Kansas State, Michigan State, Seton Hall and Xavier strengthened their appeals, while TCU tentatively rejoined the conversation.

The bubble watch is organized by scheduled tipoff time. Be sure to bookmark the up-to-the-minute bracket projection from Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller.

Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP

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Time: 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)

Despite the popular refrain of a soft bubble this season, there aren't many mid-major programs in that conversation. Middle Tennessee (28-4) is a rare exception.

The Blue Raiders picked up a 86-70 victory over a bad UTSA team in the quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament. It neither helped nor hurt their resume, and Friday's semifinal matchup against UTEP (15-16) fits a similar mold.

Middle Tennessee can still earn an automatic bid, so the bubble discussion may be a moot point. But if the Blue Raiders fall to UTEP, they'll be hoping a 4-1 record versus RPI Top 100 opponents will be enough to atone for three sub-Top 100 losses.

And after seeing Monmouth get snubbed last season despite having a better case, that's not a risk Middle Tennessee will want to take.

Coastal Carolina vs. UT Arlington

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Time: 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN3)

Remember the last paragraph for Middle Tennesee? Copy and paste.

UT Arlington (24-7) holds the No. 1 seed in the Sun Belt tourney, so the simplest path to March Madness is winning the conference. Nevertheless, should an upset occur, the Mavericks have earned a place in the committee's at-large deliberation.

Of the mid-major contenders, UT Arlington's victory over St. Mary's is the best nonconference win. However, four losses to sub-RPI Top 100 teams—including one to Coastal Carolina (16-16)—is and will remain a glaring issue.

Maybe, just maybe, the Mavericks can still sneak in without an automatic bid. They'd certainly rather not test that theory.

Michigan State vs. Minnesota

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Time: 2:25 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Michigan State (19-13) didn't mess around Thursday, pulling away from Penn State early and closing strong for a blowout win.

Now comes the biggest game of the Spartans' year.

Minnesota (23-8) is safely in the tournament. Michigan State has five RPI Top 50 wins, and a sixth would effectively seal a berth for Tom Izzo's crew—if that's not done already.

The Spartans knocked off Minnesota twice during the regular season. Can they secure a third victory to quell any speculation?

St. Bonaventure vs. Rhode Island

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Time: 2:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN)

Rhode Island (21-9) will begin Atlantic 10 tournament action Friday.

The Rams are in decent shape, boasting RPI Top 25 wins over both Cincinnati and VCU and a total of six Top 100 wins. However, terrible losses to La Salle and Fordham plague their resume.

St. Bonaventure (20-11) offers a chance for another Top 100 triumph. Rhode Island won the regular-season matchup by 12 points.

Although a victory wouldn't seal the Rams' berth, it would likely give them a third shot at beating Dayton. That might be a necessity for the bubble-dwellers.

TCU vs. Iowa State

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Time: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

All right, TCU (19-14), you have our attention.

The Horned Frogs took advantage of Josh Jackson's suspension and pulled out an 85-82 shocker over top-seeded Kansas on Thursday.

After losing seven straight outings to end the regular season and 11 of their final 14 games, though, their bubble status is volatile. That was only TCU's fourth RPI Top 100 win.

If Jamie Dixon's club topples Iowa State (21-10) Friday night, we'll need to reassess. But the Horned Frogs are still alive—and for their slim tourney hopes, that's all that matters.

Vanderbilt vs. Florida

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Time: 7 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

Although Xavier's upset win hurt several teams, Vanderbilt (18-14) has another chance to shatter bubble-dwelling dreams.

But it's not going to happen easily. Not only is Florida 24-7, but the Commodores also swept the regular-season series. The Gators will be out for revenge in their opening game of the SEC tourney.

Vanderbilt's brutal nonconference slate should not be overlooked, but the committee must decide how to weigh rewarding a tough schedule while not disregarding 14 losses.

For the 'dores, 19 wins would look significantly better than 18.

Cal vs. Oregon

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Time: 9 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)

Cal (21-11) managed to hold off a late charge from Utah to secure a spot in a Pac-12 semifinal against Oregon (28-4).

Although the victory didn't change the Golden Bears' outlook much, surviving is the most important thing during the conference tournament. On Friday, they have an opportunity to snatch a desperately needed marquee win.

Oregon swept the season series, contributing to Cal's meager 1-7 record against RPI Top 50 teams. Other than that lone victory against USC—a bubble team in its own right—the Bears' best wins are opposite Utah twice and Princeton once.

Those aren't impressive. Cal must capitalize on this chance.

Kansas State vs. West Virginia

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Time: 9 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)

Sure, it's a softer bubble than usual. That doesn't mean it's not tremendously entertaining to watch unfold.

Like a handful of the other teams mentioned, there was a chance Kansas State (20-12) could secure a final at-large spot even without another signature win. But after edging Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals Thursday night, the Wildcats can breathe a little easier.

While that doesn't mean they're definitely in, a fourth RPI Top 50 victory was enormous for a team with an easy nonconference schedule.

Throw in another win against West Virginia (25-7), and that might be exactly what the committee ordered.

Xavier vs. Creighton

Time: 9:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Xavier (21-12) just made the bubble really interesting.

Because of a six-game losing streak that lasted until the regular-season finale, the Musketeers dropped from a probable tourney qualifier to a floundering team in serious trouble. Well, until a thrilling 62-57 victory over Butler on Thursday, that is.

Suddenly, Xavier surged to a No. 10 seed in Miller's real-time projections after earning its eighth RPI Top 100 win of the season—but more importantly, its first since Feb. 4.

One final victory over Creighton would eliminate any doubts surrounding the Musketeers' NCAA dreams.