
Super Bowl Odds 2017: Final Prop Bets List, Over/Under Advice and More
Super Sunday has finally arrived, football fans! The New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons are set to clash in this year's biggest NFL game, Super Bowl LI.
The game looks to be an exciting one, featuring two of this year's best quarterbacks as well as the league's best offense (Atlanta) and stingiest defense (New England). The contest also looks to provide a lot of gaming opportunities for fans hoping to add a little something extra to their experience.
We're here today to take a look at Super Bowl LI and the latest odds—courtesy of our friends at OddsShark. We'll be making our picks for the game and run down some of the more interesting props available.
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Super Bowl LI
What: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Where: NRG Stadium; Houston
When: Sunday, Feb. 5
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Live Stream: Fox Sports Go
Line: New England (-3)
Over/Under: 58
Prediction: New England over Atlanta, 31-28
Picks and Props
Patriots and Falcons OVER 58
For much of the leadup to Super Bowl LI, we've been backing the under. However, with the over/under dropping just a little bit—from as high as 59.5—we're now thinking the two teams hit just above the total-points threshold.
The big reason here is the two offenses. Atlanta averaged a whopping 33.8 points per game during the regular season and is rated first in overall offense by Pro Football Focus. New England averaged 27.6 points during the regular season and is rated second in overall offense by Pro Football Focus.
The Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points per game on defense during the regular season. However, this Falcons offense is a historically good one.
“They game plan to beat your defense. They don’t just run their stuff every week,” Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib recently explained, per Cameron Wolfe of the Denver Post. “They’ll have a good game plan against New England. They got their backs out wide against us. They found mismatches with those running backs on our linebackers. They also ran the ball good on us.”
Atlanta is going to get its opportunities to score. The Patriots will also get theirs. The Falcons are rated just 14th in overall defense by Pro Football Focus.
We won't be at all surprised if both teams near the 30-point mark.
First Touchdown Scorer
| Julio Jones | 15-2 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8-1 |
| Julian Edelman | 8-1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8-1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 12-1 |
| Chris Hogan | 12-1 |
| Dion Lewis | 12-1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 12-1 |
One interesting prop we found on OddsShark involves the player who will score the first touchdown of the game. Falcons wideout Julio Jones is the overall favorite, but we're personally banking on one of the running backs in this game.
Much of this prop could depend on which team gets the ball first. However, since the Patriots have a tendency to defer when they win the opening coin toss, we're going to give the Falcons a slight edge to get the ball first and to score first.
Atlanta has scored a touchdown on the team's opening possession in eight consecutive games, according to Davis Solar of ESPN.com:
Because of this, we're going to predict Falcons back Devonta Freeman as the player to secure the first touchdown of the game.
Odds for MVP
| Tom Brady | 8-5 |
| Matt Ryan | 11-4 |
| Julio Jones | 15-2 |
| Julian Edelman | 12-1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 20-1 |
| Dion Lewis | 25-1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 25-1 |
| Chris Hogan | 25-1 |
Our best guess is that one of the quarterbacks comes away with MVP honors for this game. Given our prediction of a close Patriots win, we'll go with Tom Brady. However, it wouldn't be too surprising to see the Patriots win and running back LeGarrette Blount walk away as MVP.
Part of New England's game plan will likely involve using Blount to control the clock and keep the explosive Falcons offense off the field.
If the Falcons open things up on offense and manage to cut apart the Patriots defense, there's no shortage of weapons that could qualify for MVP. Matt Ryan, who just won the regular-season MVP award, per USA Today's Lorenzo Reyes, would have to be the favorite, though.
MVP Will Say What?
One of the goofier props listed involves whom the Super Bowl MVP will mention first after being presented the MVP trophy. Our guess is his team or teammates, which currently holds 2-1 odds.
Other options include the coach (9-1), the owner (9-1), God (2-1) and family (9-1).
Interestingly, you can get 20-1 odds on the first person mentioned being Donald Trump.
Brady OVER 305.5 Yards Passing
If the Patriots win and Brady is named MVP, it will likely be because of a prolific outing from the Michigan product. One interesting prop we found over at OddsChecker.com involves Brady and an over/under for his total passing yardage.
There is a pretty low over/under set at 305.5 yards, and this is a number we believe Brady can surpass. Given the weapons at his disposal—guys like Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Martellus Bennett and Dion Lewis—Brady won't lack for targets. He might not lack for open targets either, given the overall makeup of the Atlanta defense.
While the Falcons do have an underrated and opportunistic defense, they don't have an elite one. The team surrendered an average of 266.7 yards per game through the air during the regular season. Brady will probably have to surpass that number to come away victorious here.
Ryan UNDER 320.5 Yards Passing
Ryan isn't going to lack for targets when the Falcons are on the field, either. However, he may have a more difficult time racking up yardage on a consistent basis.
In addition to having one of the best overall defenses in the NFL this season, the Patriots have one of the league's top pass defenses. The Patriots are rated first in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus and allowed a mere 237.9 yards per game through the air.
We're guessing Ryan falls just short of the 320-yard mark—an over/under we found at OddsChecker.com—because of this.

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