Super Bowl Odds: PredictionMachine Says Spread Is Perfect, but Edge on Total

The betting market has the point spread for Super Bowl LI perfect, according to one predictive sports simulation company.

The value in the Super Bowl lies on the total going under, and with it comes some prop plays that are correlated with an under on the game total.

The 50,000 game simulations run by PredictionMachine yielded a 28.3-25.2 final score in favor of the New England Patriots. Those 3.1 points are almost spot on with the opening Super Bowl spread, which remains at minus-3 just days before kickoff.

The over/under is a different story, though, where the models point to a game that goes comfortably under the total, which remains a Super Bowl record of 58. Not surprisingly, some of the most popular Super Bowl prop bets on Tom Brady and Matt Ryan are also projected to fall under the lines posted in Vegas and at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.

"Our models believe that this game will be played at a slower pace than anticipated and that each defense can make a few stops here and there. The props for the game are tied to a game total of 58, but since we project a lower-scoring game, we are also looking at a lot of unders on player props," Rob Pizzola, business manager of PredictionMachine stated.

"The passing-yard total of 310.5 was eclipsed just six times by Brady and only eight times by Ryan this season. Trends don’t play much of a factor in what we do, but in combination with our math, we simply see those totals as being too high."

The simulation has Brady at 265.1 yards, with Ryan at just 262.4 yards.

Pizzola pointed to Atlanta’s No. 6 ranking in yards-per-catch defense as one factor that should blunt Brady’s passing total. And the fact that the Patriots have been excellent all season at long scoring drives that chew up lots of time on the clock should mean fewer turns on the field for Atlanta’s prolific offense.

By contrast, the Falcons have struggled against the run, ranking No. 28 in yards per rush. New England’s terrific offensive line and head coach Bill Belichick’s tendency to exploit opposing defenses’ inefficiencies should mean that the Patriots will employ a run-heavy game plan.

Finally, the simulations point to New England with an early lead, minimizing its need to throw the ball often, especially if the running game is working well.

Not surprisingly, PredictionMachine is also projecting LeGarrette Blount to surpass his rushing yard total prop bet of 57.5 yards. Their numbers point to 65.1 yards on their Super Bowl prop projections.