Super Bowl Odds 2017: Over/Under Line, Spread Picks for Patriots vs. Falcons

LeGarrette Blount was a vital part of the New England Patriots offense throughout the regular season. In addition to his 1,161 rushing yards, he pounded the ball into the end zone 18 times. That was the greatest number of touchdowns scored by any AFC player in the league this season—second overall to the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson.

Blount has been relatively quiet in the postseason with 78 rushing yards in two games. However, if the Atlanta Falcons are under the impression that Blount's impact has dissipated, they could be making a big mistake.

That's unlikely, but the blunt force that Blount brings on an every-game basis may be difficult for the Falcons to contend with no matter how they have prepared.

That's because the Falcons have a significant weakness on their defense. They rank 25th overall in yards allowed, and while they are somewhat better against the run, this has been a problem area in seasons past.

The Falcons have gotten a lift this year from the presence of middle linebacker Deion Jones and strong safety Keanu Neal. These two rookies led the Falcons in tackles with 108 and 106, respectively, and they were both excellent against the run.

Matchup	Date	Time (ET)	TV	Point Spread; Over/Under	Prediction
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons	Feb. 5	6:30 p.m.	Fox	New England (-3); 58	New England; Over

Prior to their arrival, the Falcons were vulnerable to the power running game. While they had plenty of speed and quickness on defense, they often struggled when it came to the battle in the trenches. Bigger, stronger offensive linemen were able to knock the Falcons backward, and opponents with strong running games could bludgeon them.

Yes, the Falcons are an improved defensive team, but they are by no means accomplished in that area. They ranked 17th, and it seems certain that the Patriots will use Blount to test Neal, Jones and the rest of the Atlanta defense.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

In addition to the running game, the Patriots have perhaps the best quarterback in NFL history in Tom Brady, and he brings a career 4-2 Super Bowl record into this game. The two defeats came at the hands of the New York Giants, and both were heartbreakers.

The Atlanta defense does not compare to the hard-hitting and nasty defenses the Giants brought to the championship game following the 2007 and 2011 seasons.

Brady's top target is Julian Edelman, who lacks size and strength but sells out to catch the ball on every throw. Edelman caught 98 passes for 1,107 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season, and he has added 16 more receptions in New England's two playoff games.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

However, Buffalo Bills castoff Chris Hogan has been one of the postseason stars with 13 receptions for 275 yards and two TDs. Brady can also throw to tight end Martellus Bennett, running backs Dion Lewis and James White and wideout Danny Amendola.

None of the Patriots receivers are All-Pro candidates, but they can all make the decisive plays in any game.

The Falcons are quite respectful of Brady, at least when they have spoken of him to the media this week in Houston.

"We are going against Tom Brady, he is a G.O.A.T. (greatest of all time), let's keep it real," Falcons defensive tackle Ra'Shede Hageman said (h/t Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports).

That remark is typical of what has come out of Atlanta media sessions.

Whether the Falcons really mean it or they are just avoiding any controversies is not known. However, they clearly have their most difficult assignment going up against the quarterback and a powerful New England running game that just may knock them off stride.

The Patriots are three-point favorites over the Falcons, and the total is 58 points, according to OddsShark. The point spread has remained steady since both teams earned their spots in the Super Bowl after winning the conference championship games. The total had been at 58.5 points, but it has dropped by a half-point recently.

Prediction

Both of these teams have explosive offensive attacks, and that's reflected in the high over/under that has been set in this game.

The feeling here is that both teams will be able to move the ball and score, especially in the first half. However, the New England defense appears far more capable of slowing down the Falcons than Atlanta is capable of stopping the Patriots.

New England will come up with its stops in the fourth quarter, and the Patriots will win the game and cover the spread. This game will also go over the total as a result of a late Brady-to-Edelman touchdown.