Super Bowl Odds 2017: Point Spread, Moneyline, Patriots vs. Falcons Prop Bets
Even for those not seeking personal gain, Super Bowl LI still offers plenty of intrigue.
As the New England Patriots attempt to embellish their dynasty, the Atlanta Falcons seek their first championship in franchise history. Despite their contrasting pasts, each team skipped to a conference championship without breaking a sweat.
The last teams standing won their four combined postseason games by 76 cumulative points. Neither side has mustered fewer than 30 points since New England beat the Denver Broncos' top-ranked defense on the road in Week 15.
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The Big Game features the hottest quarterback (and deserving MVP) on the planet. And Tom Brady is also playing.
As long as they tune out the commercials, NFL fans will enjoy the Super Bowl without risking their finances. Of course, that won't stop gamblers from dipping into the never-ending buffet of prop bets.
Let's look at some noteworthy weird wagers alongside the standard point spread and moneyline, courtesy of OddsShark as of Saturday.
| Sun., Feb. 5 | New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons | 6:30 p.m | Fox | NE -3 | 58.5 |
Moneyline
Before getting into the wacky stuff, let's keep things simple by examining the over/under line. It's a lofty one at 58.5 points, but Brady and Matt Ryan have made that look like child's play lately.
The Falcons have generated 300 points over their past eight games, giving them an obscene average of 37.5. Including their playoff explosions against the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers, they have registered 34.4 points per game this year.
After yielding an NFL-low 15.6 points per game during the season, the Patriots held the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers to 16 and 17 points, respectively. That doesn't mean they will stifle Ryan's rolling crew. As noted by Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz, their defense benefited from a favorable schedule:
They also caught postseason breaks by facing a Brock Osweiler-led Texans team and the Steelers mostly without Le'Veon Bell, who left the AFC Championship Game early with a groin injury.
Per ProFootballTalk.com's Mike Florio (via Sunday Night Football on NBC), Falcons running back Devonta Freeman isn't scared of the matchup:
The Patriots, meanwhile, have accrued 30.7 points per bout with Brady under center. Even with Rob Gronkowski limited to eight games, they rank second in Football Outsiders' offensive efficiency behind the Falcons. They should have little trouble moving the ball on a defense that finished the season 25th in yards allowed.
These teams make few mistakes, ending the regular season tied for first with 11 giveaways. All this creates a formula for high scoring, so don't be surprised it both squads hit 30 on the scoreboard.
Prop Bets
Breaking Super Bowl Passing Record
| Yes | 3-1 |
| No | 1-5 |
If both offenses are about to run (or pass) wild, why not take a flier on one of the game's red-hot quarterbacks making history?
The odds are skewed in favor of Brady and Ryan both eclipsing 300 passing yards and 2.5 touchdown throws. There's no fun in predicting a probable outcome, but daring bettors could instead take a long shot on either signal-caller setting the Super Bowl record for most passing yards.
Kurt Warner—who also holds the second- and third-highest tallies—set the mark at 414 during his team's narrow 23-16 Super Bowl XXXIV win over the Tennessee Titans.
It's not likely. Brady has topped 400 twice this season, each time peaking at 406. Ryan shredded the Carolina Panthers for 503 yards in Week 4, but he hasn't hit the 400-yard plateau since.
He did, however, torch the Packers for 392 in the NFC Championship Game. New England's secondary isn't as diminished, but it's hardly elite either. It ranked 12th in passing defense but 23rd in Football Outsiders' defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against the pass.
If both studs hold their end of the bargain, Ryan and Brady will need to keep firing for 60 minutes. Either player registering 415 or more passing yards would hardly stun viewers expecting a glamorous aerial display.
Matt Ryan Winning Regular-Season MVP/Super Bowl MVP
| Yes | 3-1 |
| No | 1-5 |
When the winning quarterback has a big Super Bowl performance, he typically receives MVP honors. Passers have netted seven of the last 10 trophies, and it's highly unlikely a defender overcomes skill-position bias in a shootout.
Ryan led the NFL in quarterback rating (117.1) and yards per pass attempt (9.26) for the league's premier offense this season. Giving the 2016 season's MVP hardware to anyone else would be dumb.
This one has a good chance of paying off if the Falcons prevail. Ryan has tossed 18 touchdowns and zero picks over his last six games, so he warrants the wager.
Team to Make Longest Field Goal
| Patriots | 10-13 |
| Falcons | Even |
The squad who settles for field goals is in trouble. With that said, both teams wield excellent kickers in Matt Bryant and Stephen Gostkowski.
Vegas is giving Gostkowski better odds of booting the game's longest kick, but he has made two of four field-goal attempts of 50 yards or more this season. He has also missed practice due to an illness, per the team's injury report.
Bryant, on the other hand, has nailed six kicks of 50 yards or more and all nine of his attempts from 40 to 49 yards. Even if New England's defense isn't as potent as its opposing scoring average suggests, the unit could hold Atlanta to one long three-point try.
Luke Bryan's National Anthem Time
| Over 2:15 | 5-6 |
| Under 2:15 | 5-6 |
OddsShark's Joe Osborne clocked the average time of the last 11 Super Bowl national anthems at one minute, 58 seconds. That's probably enough time to sing a relatively short song.
Lady Gaga's First Halftime Song?
| "Born This Way" | 9-4 |
| "Bad Romance" | 5-2 |
| "Edge of Glory" | 6-1 |
| "Poker Face" | 10-1 |
| "Just Dance" | 10-1 |
| Any Other Song | 11-1 |
Um..."Just Dance"? Seems like a decent song to uplift the audience's energy. But that's a random guess from someone who only knows about six or seven Lady Gaga songs and may see what else is on during intermission.
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