Super Bowl Odds 2017: Opening Las Vegas Betting Lines for Patriots vs. Falcons

The New England Patriots will try to win their fifth Super Bowl in 16 seasons as they take on the Atlanta Falcons, who are looking for their first, in Super Bowl LI, which will kick off Sunday, February 5, at 6:30 p.m. ET in Houston. Fox will televise the game.

The Pats are installed as three-point favorites, per OddsShark. The over-under for the game is set at 58.5 points.

Below you'll find a storyline for each phase of the game (offense, defense, special teams), some analysis, and picks for the spread and over/under.

Offense: Depth at Skill Positions

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Both the Patriots and Falcons have this in spades, which is a big reason why they're playing in February while 30 other teams are watching.

Some stats to prove this notion:

1. Six Patriots had at least 400 receiving yards this season, and seven caught at least 25 passes.
2. The Patriots' backup quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett, combined for five total touchdowns (four passing, one rushing), no interceptions and a 65 percent completion percentage in four games.
3. The Falcons' second-string running back, Tevin Coleman, scored eight regular-season touchdowns.
4. Ten Falcons, at minimum, had these stats: 13 catches, 203 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The 10 include five wide receivers, two running backs and three tight ends.

When New England quarterback Tom Brady sat four games due to the Deflategate suspension, the Pats went 3-1.

When Atlanta wideout Julio Jones missed two December games to injury, the Falcons went 2-0 and outscored their opponents 85-27. Granted, they played the 2-14 San Francisco 49ers and the 4-12 Los Angeles Rams, but winning by four scores isn't easy against any NFL team.

Each week, it seems like someone else steps up for these teams and has a big day (outside the quarterbacks, who always play well).

Defense: Underrated

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The Patriots and Falcons don't have defensive players you'll see in Old Spice or Papa John's commercials, but both units are coming on strong in the second half of the year.

In the regular season, New England had the best scoring defense in the league, as well as the fourth-best rushing defense, per Football Outsiders DVOA.

Also, three members of the secondary (cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan and safety Devin McCourty) earned grades of at least 85 (out of 100), per Pro Football Focus. For context, PFF considers anything between 85 and 89.9 "high quality" on its grading scale.

On the Atlanta side, a look at the performances in the second half of the season (plus playoffs) shows a much improved unit.

After an ugly 24-15 loss to Philadelphia in Week 10, the Falcons have allowed these point totals through the NFC Championship Game: 19, 29, 14, 13, 16, 32, 20 and 21.

Some context for the 29 and 32 scores: The Chiefs beat Atlanta 29-28 and scored 16 of their points on defense and special teams, so the Falcons defense was responsible for only 13. For the latter, Atlanta beat New Orleans 38-32 and impressively held the Saints to 13 points through three quarters before quarterback Drew Brees led his team on a ferocious comeback.

As good as the New England and Atlanta offenses are, their defenses will keep this game from becoming a Wild West shootout.

Special Teams: Kicker Duel

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It's possible we see a kicker duel at the Super Bowl. The Falcons' Matt Bryant and the Patriots' Stephen Gostkowski are two of the best in the business, and they get the benefit of playing in an indoor stadium, where the kicking conditions will be perfect.

If a team starts with the ball on its own 25-yard line, for example, it will realistically have to go only about 35 yards to get into the deeper edge of each kicker's field-goal range. New England and Atlanta are certainly capable of that.

Bryant, in particular, has had an impressive year. He made 34 of 37 field goals, including six of eight from 50 or more yards. Gostkowski had a down year by his standards, but he still finished in the top half of the league in field-goal percentage (84.4 percent).

Picks

Take New England minus the three points. That spread is just too small, even against a dynamite offense like Atlanta's. The Pats are 16-2 this season and have won five straight games by double digits.

Pick the under as well, though that one should be a nail-biter. Both offenses are dynamic and capable of putting up 40-plus points, but the defenses are playing sneaky good football right now and should slow the onslaught a bit.

Score: New England 31, Atlanta 24