PredictionMachine NFL Picks: Patriots, Falcons Conference Championship Best Bets

Heading into Conference Championship Weekend, the most likely Super Bowl 51 matchup is the New England Patriots against the Atlanta Falcons, according to the updated projections at PredictionMachine.com.

And in 50,000 simulations of that potential matchup, the Patriots beat the Falcons by an average margin of approximately three points with a final score of 30-27.

Considering that the Patriots are favored this week over the Pittsburgh Steelers and, barring an injury to starting quarterback Tom Brady, will also be favored should they make the Super Bowl, New England leads the way in Super Bowl 51 win expectancy.

New England has a 34.8 percent chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this season, according to the projections. The next most likely Super Bowl winner is the Falcons at 26.2 percent. The Patriots and Falcons combine for 61 percent of all potential Super Bowl wins, which is largely due to the fact they are both home favorites in their conference championship matchups this week.

Looking at this week alone, the Patriots have a 62.3 percent chance to advance to the Super Bowl. That leaves the Steelers with a 37.7 percent chance to advance, which is the lowest probability of any team in action this weekend.

The Falcons are favorites at home against the Green Bay Packers, holding a 55.4 percent chance to advance this week. The Packers have the next best chance, outside of the two favorites, to win the Super Bowl. On the back of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have a 20.1 percent chance to bring the Lombardi Trophy back to Wisconsin.

The Steelers have the worst odds of the four remaining teams to win the Super Bowl, thanks in large part to the fact they are facing the Patriots this weekend. In a potential matchup with the Falcons or Packers in the Super Bowl, the Steelers would hold around a 50 percent chance to win either game.

In addition, the average scores of the Super Bowl 51 simulations by PredictionMachine show combined totals near 60 points regardless of who is playing.