Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (15-2) will be playing in an NFL record sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) as solid home favorites on Sunday. 

The Patriots defeated the Steelers 27-16 as seven-point road chalk back in Week 7, although it's worth noting that New England still had tight end Rob Gronkowski and Pittsburgh was without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to a knee injury.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 51.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.4-15.9, Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers were in the midst of a four-game losing streak when they fell to the Patriots at home in the last meeting, and now they are riding a league-best nine-game winning streak (7-1-1 against the spread) after edging the Kansas City Chiefs 18-16 as 2.5-point road underdogs last Sunday.

While New England has appeared in six consecutive AFC Championship Games, the team has gone 2-3 in the previous five and split two Super Bowls during that stretch. Pittsburgh is 10-3 straight up in its last 13 games after losing the previous game in a matchup as well, showing consecutive losses to the same opponent do not happen often.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots are 10-3-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings with the Steelers. New England is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games, with both failed covers coming in the team's only two losses to the Buffalo Bills and the Seattle Seahawks during the regular season.

Pittsburgh did not need to give the Patriots any more motivation to win a ninth conference title, as playing poorly and still covering as 16.5-point favorites in a 34-16 win over the Houston Texans last week was likely enough. New England is also getting the nod at online prediction sites, sitting at a 62.3 percent chance to reach the Super Bowl according to PredictionMachine.com.

Smart pick

New England quarterback Tom Brady was not at his best in the last meeting with the Steelers or against the Texans last Saturday, and he rarely plays two bad games in a row.

Brady is gunning to win a Super Bowl after being suspended for the first four games of the season, and you can bet he'll turn in his best effort here, especially playing at home. Take the Patriots to win by at least a touchdown on the NFL point spreads.

Betting trends

The Steelers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

The total has gone under in the Patriots' last six conference championship games.

The total has gone under in 16 of the Steelers' last 22 games.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.