Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots are massive double-digit favorites in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs Saturday against the Houston Texans after blanking them 27-0 in Week 3 of the regular season while starting third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett. This time, the Patriots will have future Hall of Famer Tom Brady at quarterback.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 15.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.1-9.6 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston's defense can help it cover by limiting how many points New England scores. Of course, the Texans will need to score at least a couple of touchdowns to give themselves a chance, but they looked much better last week in a 27-14 win over the Oakland Raiders.

Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for one touchdown and ran for another against the Raiders, and he needs to remember that he beat the Patriots last year when he was with the Denver Broncos.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England has won the past five meetings with the Texans, going 4-1 against the spread and outscoring them 54-6 in the last two matchups. While the Patriots suffered both of their losses this season at home, they dominated Houston with Brissett under center, as the defense held Osweiler to 196 passing yards while picking him off once and sacking him twice.

New England running back LeGarrette Blount also had a fine game, rushing for 105 yards on 24 carries and scoring two touchdowns, while Brissett added 48 yards on the ground.

Smart pick

The Patriots, with a league-best 34.5 percent chance to win Super Bowl 51, according to PredictionMachine.com, have arguably the most balanced offense of any team left in the playoffs, and that might go unnoticed with Brady beating opponents through the air. Blount scored a franchise-record 18 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and ran for a career-high 1,161 yards as well.

With the additions of Dion Lewis and James White, New England might have the best group of backs in the league, and that could be the difference in terms of time of possession and grinding out the clock. The Texans will be hard-pressed to score much again, so back the Patriots at sports betting sites to win in another blowout.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 17-3 straight up in their last 20 games in the playoffs as home favorites.

The total has gone under in five of the Patriots' last seven games.

The Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.