Dolphins vs. Steelers: Updated Odds, TV Info and Prediction for Wild-Card Game

The Miami Dolphins beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-15 in October. Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards and two touchdowns. The three most important Steelers (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le'Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown) were on the field. The Dolphins outgained the Steelers 474-297.

Yet the spread of the game on Sunday is 10.5 in favor of Pittsburgh. The number has risen in the past 24 hours from 10, and some sportsbooks even have the figure at 11.

It doesn't make much sense on the surface.

If you dig a little deeper, though, you can see why the spread is so strongly in Pittsburgh's favor.

Let's take a look at the game details for this Sunday before diving into three predictions.

Game Details

When: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET

Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh

Television: CBS

Live Stream: CBS All Access

Tickets: ScoreBig.com

Over/Under: 46 (per OddsShark)

Spread: Pittsburgh (-10.5)

Prediction No. 1: Bell Goes Over 200 Yards

Gary Landers/Associated Press

The Dolphins have one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. They held Bell largely in check in October, but that's because Miami was able to control the clock, thanks to Ajayi's running, so Bell only had 10 carries for 53 yards.

At home, in the frigid cold and coming off a hot streak that led to an AFC Offensive Player of the Month award, expect Bell to run downhill all game.

He's run for at least 118 yards in five of his last six games, and there's no sign he'll be stopped Sunday.

Prediction No. 2: Maxwell's Injury Will Doom Dolphins' Pass Defense

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Antonio Brown was held in check against the Dolphins in October. He only caught four passes for 39 yards—arguably his worst game of the season.

But the Dolphins' No. 1 cornerback, Byron Maxwell, who had a great regular season, was on the field then. He probably won't be now, as he's listed as doubtful on the injury report. Maxwell hasn't practiced all week with a high ankle sprain.

No other Dolphins cornerback ranked in the top 50 in Pro Football Focus' rankings this year. Brown is a tough cover for any cornerback, but without Maxwell on the field, he should have a big day.

Prediction No. 3: Pittsburgh 27, Dolphins 13

According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com, Roethlisberger has thrown for 50 touchdowns and 5,458 passing yards in his last 16 home games.

To put that in perspective, Tom Brady threw for 50 touchdowns and 4,806 yards in 2007, the year the New England Patriots went undefeated until the Super Bowl. That was arguably the greatest quarterback year of all time.

Big Ben and the Steelers are hard to beat at home, let alone by a warm-weather team playing in a frigid environment (kickoff temperature will be 14 degrees with a wind chill of zero, per the National Weather Service).

It wouldn't be advisable to bet on the Steelers in Vegas, as all Miami needs to do is lose by no more than 10 to cover, but Pittsburgh should win this matchup and move on to face the Kansas City Chiefs.