Winning Close Games Is Jim Harbaugh's Next Challenge at Michigan After FSU Loss

Of all 124 teams outside the College Football Playoff, no program is saddled with a greater "what-if" burden from the 2016 season than the Michigan Wolverines.

Capped by a crushing 33-32 loss to the No. 11 Florida State Seminoles in the 2016 Orange Bowl on Friday, Michigan suffered its third gut-wrenching defeat in four games.

Once again, the Wolverines came up tantalizingly short against top competition—a recurring problem through two years of the Harbaugh era, especially this season.

Against Iowa, Michigan lost by one point. In a thriller at Ohio State, the Maize and Blue fell by a field goal in double overtime. And then, Florida State stole a one-point victory.

It was a script all too familiar in the closing moments, although the Orange Bowl as a whole followed an uncharacteristic path.

The 'Noles jumped on Michigan early, racing to a 17-3 lead behind a dominant opening possession and 92-yard touchdown because of a coverage breakdown. But the Wolverines defense, as the unit did all season, buckled down and started to control the game.

Plus, for the first time since the regular-season opener, Michigan scored a defensive touchdown. Deondre Francois' terrible decision turned into a 14-yard pick-six for Mike McCray.

The play sparked what would be a wild fourth quarter. But through 26 games of the Harbaugh era, that has typically spelled disaster.

Now, before anyone gets carried away, this is not a defining trend. Harbaugh joined Fielding Yost as the only other Michigan coach to win 10-plus games in his first two seasons with the program. In 2015, Harbaugh took a team with minimal expectations to double-digit victories, and he followed that up with a national contender this year.

For the Wolverines to take that desired championship step, though, they must consistently close out or steal tight games. That's been a rare sight.

In 2015, Michigan trailed Utah 17-10 during the fourth quarter. Then, Jake Rudock threw a pick-six. After five straight blowout wins, the Wolverines held a nine-point lead over Michigan State in the final frame. However, Michigan's final three drives resulted in 11 yards before the most jaw-dropping conclusion of the season.

Over the next three weeks, the Wolverines swiped a pair of close road victories over Minnesota and Indiana. Both programs are quality Big Ten opponents, but neither school is classified as "top competition" in football.

And then, fast-forward to 2016.

Jourdan Lewis' spectacular one-handed interception helped the Wolverines stave off Wisconsin. Still, Michigan's offense mustered just two total yards throughout its final three possessions.

Later in the year, Harbaugh's club built a 30-10 advantage on Michigan State 18 seconds into the final frame. Steadily, however, MSU fought back as the Wolverines sputtered. They managed a single first down over their final three drives.

Michigan survived those games, but the offensive line again faltered in matchups with Iowa and Ohio State. In those cases, the Wolverines couldn't overcome the struggles.

Opponent	4th-Quarter Lead	What's to Blame?
Iowa	13-11	Final two drives: Interception and three-and-out
Ohio State	17-14	In fourth quarter: Nine plays, five total yards
Florida State	30-27	66-yard kickoff return sets up game-winning TD

Friday night, Michigan seemed to discover what it had lacked in Iowa City and Columbus. Trailing by 12 points, Wilton Speight led two touchdown drives that put Harbaugh's club up 30-27.

In that moment, the offense had finally propelled the Wolverines to the lead instead of desperately clinging to it and failing.

As the unfortunate trend would have it, though, Florida State pulled off an amazing "run it out, no don't run it out, why are you running it out!, nevermind keep going!" 66-yard kickoff return that set up Nyqwan Murray's game-winning touchdown catch.

Once again, Michigan lost a bitterly close game.

Through two seasons with Harbaugh at the helm, the Wolverines are just 3-5 in one-possession outcomes. It's not necessarily indicative of the future, but it's a painful current reality.

For the Wolverines, the 10-win 2016 campaign will be remembered as disappointing because they held a fourth-quarter lead in every game. All three losses entailed frustrating late-game moments.

What if Amara Darboh caught the third-down pass at Iowa that would've sealed the game?

What if Ohio State running back Curtis Samuel hadn't pulled off his magical run? What if Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett was stopped inches short of the first-down line?

What if Jordan Glasgow made the tackle on the kick return, eliminating Florida State's terrific field position?

Michigan flirted with greatness this season, a critically important step for the program. After a decade of mediocrity, Harbaugh has lifted his alma mater to the precipice of championship contention. Only a handful of college football teams can claim a fourth-quarter advantage in every contest.

But what matters most is the final numbers on the scoreboard, and that stung the Wolverines three agonizing times.

What-ifs will obscure what could've been a memorable 2016 Michigan squad. Harbaugh's challenge for 2017 and beyond is to eliminate those questions altogether by winning these close games.

Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.