One of the biggest points in the NFL's tug of war with marijuana has yet to be made.ย
So I'll make it: Be it recreationally or medically, the league's drug laws arenโt just wrong in a moral sense. Theyโre wrong in a competitive sense.
Consider the list of players who served bans, per the NFLโs substance-abuse policy. Think the Redskins wouldโve liked Trent Williams during their latest two-game slide? How dangerous would the Steelers be with Martavis Bryant? Buffalo mightโve lost its playoff chances without Marcell Dareus and Seantrel Henderson available, too.
That's a lot of impactful names lost. The league is swapping the semblance of anti-drug mortality (smoking weed has proved helpful, not hurtful, regarding brain injuries) for a league with only so much star power.
It's bad for marketing. It's bad for parity; I subconsciously have to consider who got caught for smoking and who didn't when I make these weekly picks. And it's unnecessary. I've been getting a lot of attention for my views on weed and pro football. It's high time the NFL listens up.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
1 of 16
When: Thursday at 8:25 p.m. ET (NBC, NFLN, TWTR)
The Raiders should expand their lead in the AFC West for five reasons: left tackle, left guard, right guard, right tackle and center.
Those five blockers are tough to top when you look across the league. Theyโll make life tough on a Kansas City front seven thatโs predicated on getting to the passer.
Itโll be smooth sailing for Derek Carr when his protection holds up. Sure, the Chiefs defense is amazing at getting its hands on the football. Just keep in mind the Falcons were shredding it apart last week before Eric Berry became the man.
Speaking of Berry, Kansas City needs to manufacture non-offensive scores like that. Good luck against a Raiders offense that takes care of the football.
Prediction: Raiders 30, Chiefs 27
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
2 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Remember: Washington is posting impressive offensive stats, even without the services of its star blindside blocker.
Now Trent Williamsโmy pick for the best left tackle in footballโis back. His return immediately cancels out Philadelphiaโs greatest weapon: its pass rush.
Kirk Cousins should be free to pick and choose from a host of wide-open targets. Philadelphia doesnโt have the horses to compete with Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson and so on. Expect a "You like that?" kind of game from No. 8.
Prediction: Redskins 31, Eagles 23
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
3 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The defense? Phenomenal.
The running game? One of the best.
But Iโve learned my lesson about picking the Texans in recent weeks. Houston is good enough to hang tough with any team but bad enough to lose because of quarterback play. Iโm tired of attaching my name and reputation to Brock Osweiler.
You know who I can get behind? Andrew Luck in December. His most recent outing was an absolute evisceration of the Jets last Monday night. Those kinds of games can jump-start an offense.
Prediction: Colts 24, Texans 20
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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
4 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
If Cleveland is going to finally win a game, this is it.
Itโs a divisional opponent. The Bengals are probably riding a little too high after smoking the Eagles. Hue Jackson has insider knowledge of where to attack his old employer, too.
Yet theyโre the Browns. Iโm not sure whoโs playing quarterback againโthat feeling is all too familiar. Robert Griffin III wonโt have enough time to appropriately readjust if heโs tapped as QB1. And we know where Josh McCown andย Cody Kessler have led this team.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 13
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
5 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tennessee had an extra week to drillย in all the tenants of Mike Mularkeyโs ball-control offense.
Marcus Mariota will know he needs to take care of the football. DeMarco Murray will know he needs to run north-south against this Broncos front. Taylor Lewan and Co. will know they canโt get beat when Mariota inevitably needs to throw on a 3rd-and-8.
Can they execute to perfection? Thatโs what it takes for a mid-level team like the Titans to scare a Super Bowl contender. As impressive as Mariota has been, I donโt think heโs capable of outdueling coordinator Wade Phillips.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Titans 16
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins
6 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
On safeties?
On linebackers?
On cornerbacks?
It doesn't matter where Arizona uses David Johnson. He has an advantage wherever he lines up. He's the best running back in football and perhaps the sport's most complete player.
Miami has plenty of options to try to counter Johnson. If he plays,ย Kiko Alonso (thumb surgery) has the coverage ability to run with No. 31 on screens and routes out of the backfield. I'm just not sold on anyone sticking with Johnson for 60 minutes, though. Miami's bad defense (see: last week versus Baltimore) will play catch-up all game long.
Prediction: Cardinals 29, Dolphins 22
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
7 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Chicago puts two safeties back and forces opposing offenses to play patient.
Matthew Stafford will happily play that game. Forget last weekend's big downfield throws to Golden Tate; Detroit runs a dink-and-dunk offense at its core that compensates for a lack of a running game. Stafford is operating it at an expert level.
Flip the field, and you'll find a run game is Chicago's only hope. That hope will get dimmer when Jordan Howard tries to pick holes occupied by Haloti Ngata and A'Shawn Robinson. Those two are quickly becoming a top-three run-stopping duo.
Prediction: Lions 28, Bears 16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
8 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Ben Roethlisberger and Co. will see Buffalo's ball-control offenseโand raise it.
Few teams are playing better keep-away football than Pittsburgh right now. Coordinator Todd Haley's offense centers around Le'Veon Bell dominating time of possession with a few deep shots sprinkled throughout. In essence, it's a better version of Buffalo's offense.
Those Bills have rattled off five consecutive 150-plus-yard rushing games. But they haven't faced a defense packed with so many athletesโRyan Shazier, Lawrence Timmons andย Bud Dupree, to name a few. Tyrod Taylor will need to throw quickly and accurately to keep Buffalo in it.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Bills 21
San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers
9 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
After last Sunday night's blowout loss, I've seen enough.
These Panthers have mentally checked out of the 2016 season. They finally realized they won't be repeating as NFC champs, and their effortโblocking, tackling, playing smart assignment footballโhas slipped.
Philip Rivers is just the Grim Reaper sent to finish the job. Put his late-game interceptions aside, and you'll see a quarterback who always takes what a defense gives him. In Carolina's case, it'll be a whole lot.
Prediction: Chargers 35, Panthers 31
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars
10 of 16
When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
How long will Minnesotaโs hangover last?
Thatโs the question at the heart of Vikings-Jaguars. Mike Zimmer will return to coach the unquestionably better team, but that was the case 10 days earlier against Dallas. Minnesota still lost.
Up next: the even more disappointing Jaguars, who limp into Week 14 with little to no offense to speak of. That bodes well for Zimmer, who can dial up all his exotic pressures and coverages to fool Blake Bortles. Thatโs not exactly an impossible task.
Sam Bradford wonโt dice up Jacksonvilleโs defense by any stretch. His saving grace? The Jaguars donโt have an elite pass-rusher who can expose Minnesotaโs tackle situation. Checkdowns and field goals should win it.
Prediction: Vikings 12, Jaguars 9
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
11 of 16
When: Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Stack these two rosters side-by-side, and the Jets look better by a mile.
I just canโt pick them, though. Not after watching Todd Bowlesโ talented defense fold like a paper bag to end Week 13. And not after watching Bryce Petty attempt to play a passable quarterback and fail.
Following that blowout loss with a cross-country trip wonโt be easy. Effort is still a concern; San Francisco still plays tough and runs the ball better behind Colin Kaepernick andย Carlos Hyde. It wonโt be afraid to test its better-than-advertised line against Gang Green.
Give me the bad home team over the more talented team that could care less.
Prediction: 49ers 17, Jets 15
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
12 of 16
When: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
It feels like a must-win week for Dan Quinn and his staff.
Win, and the ghosts of last weekendโs crushing home loss are (somewhat) exorcised. Lose, and heโll hear recycled storylines from last year about how his Falcons cannot finish. Itโs that simple.
Atlantaโs the better team. But the areas the Falcons need help in happen to be Los Angeles' strong spots. For instance, Robert Quinn can expose a banged-up Jake Matthews. Todd Gurley should find room against a simple run defense. And that secondary was just torn apart by Alex Smith. Jared Goff can do that.
Still, Matt Ryan should prove too explosive for L.A. to handle. Iโll take his team in a close call.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Rams 20
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13 of 16
When: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Jameis Winston is in unknown territory.
His team just won three games it wasnโt supposed to. His defense is playing the kind of defense that can earn a wild-card spotโor better. But young teams like Tampa Bay struggle sometimes to keep the good times rolling.
Especially when Drew Brees is on the other sideline. I know about his interception issues, but so does Sean Payton. Weโll see some safer throws and play-action passes against the Buccaneers. More importantly, weโll see pass protection hold up. New Orleans wonโt succumb to Gerald McCoy and friends the way other teams have.
Prediction: Saints 27, Buccaneers 26
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
14 of 16
When: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Three-step-and-throw quarterbacks usually spell trouble for Seattleโs secondary.
Now, itโll go up against the quickest release in the league. And it wonโt have Earl Thomas to clean up the mess of all Aaron Rodgersโ slants and crossing routes. Thatโs double trouble.
Also: Thomas Rawls will find far fewer running lanes this week than he did against Carolina. Why? Coordinator Dom Capers shows way more looks and fronts than the Panthers. It wonโt be so straightforward for a Seahawks line that often looks confused to find run fits.
Prediction: Packers 21, Seahawks 17
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
15 of 16
When: Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
I tip my cap to Giants general manager Jerry Reese, man.
He caught a lot of flak for going on his offseason shopping spree. Now we know the point; Big Blueโs front (Damon Harrison, Johnathan Hankins, etc.) is built to take on Dallasโ big, scary front five. Unlike other physical teams, itโs built to win.
Or at least it was. Jason Pierre-Paulโs surgery knocks a little wind out of New Yorkโs upset sails. Itโll now rely on guys such as Kerry Wynn and Owa Odighizuwa to slow Ezekiel Elliott down. With 10 days to prepare between games, Dallas will come with a few wrinkles to spring its running gameโand win the division.
Prediction: Cowboys 21, Giants 20
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
16 of 16
When: Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Snitches get stitches, John Harbaugh.
This Ravens-Patriots showdown is the first one since Deflategate, a controversy sparked when Baltimore warned the Colts about Tom Bradyโs alleged wrongdoing. Harbaughย deniedย this accusation, but if I know Bradyโand I doโheโll be out for blood.
This game has Tom Terrific written all over it. Heโll be super-motivated to rip Harbaughโs team a new one given his four-game ban earlier this year. And heโll need to carry the team; LeGarrette Blount wonโt find much running room against Baltimore, but the Ravens secondary isnโt scaring anyone.
Expect lots of Malcolm Mitchell and Dion Lewis. The former is emerging as a trusted Brady target. The latter has come back in force to recuperate some of Rob Gronkowskiโs quick pattern work.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 24
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