New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Following straight-up losses in three of four games, the New Orleans Saints face their last chance to resuscitate their dwindling playoff hopes as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.

The Saints' swoon comes on the heels of a solid 4-1 SU run and leaves them with a 5-7 SU record, two games back of Tampa Bay and the Atlanta Falcons in the division standings.

The 7-5 Buccaneers have roared to life following a mediocre 3-5 SU start. Tampa Bay has won four in a row both SU and against the spread to move within reach of its first NFL playoff berth since 2007.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 51 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.2-24.4 Buccaneers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints own the second-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 28.9 points per game, and they have scored 41 or more points twice in their past five outings.

While the Saints have alternated between SU wins and losses in five road games this season, they have paid out regularly at the sportsbooks with a 6-0-1 ATS record over their past seven.

Conversely, the Buccaneers have struggled at home since last season, going 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight. Tampa Bay is also winless SU and ATS in three as home chalk and a meager 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in its past 10 games in Week 14.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

After allowing 31.3 points per game over their first three outings this season, the Buccaneers defense has settled down considerably. Tampa Bay has allowed just 13.25 points per game over its past four, twice holding opponents to 10 or fewer points.

The Buccaneers have shown signs of turning the corner at home. Tampa Bay dominated the Chicago Bears in a 36-10 win in Week 10 and stifled the Seattle Seahawks in a 14-5 win as five-point underdogs two weeks ago.

The Tampa Bay defense has been particularly effective at containing opposing passers, limiting them to a minuscule 187.5 passing yards per game during the team's four-game win streak.

Smart pick

New Orleans has won eight of nine games SU against the Buccaneers but has failed to cover in four of six overall and two of three in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are pegged as betting chalk for just the second time this season after going 6-3 SU and ATS in their last nine as underdogs.

Look for Tampa Bay to snuff out the Saints' playoff hopes with a win both SU and ATS this weekend.

Betting trends

The Saints are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Buccaneers.

The total has gone under in 12 of the Saints' last 15 games against the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home.

All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.