Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills (5-5) will look to build off a road victory last week and avoid a letdown versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) on Sunday as solid home favorites. The Bills are coming off an upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals and expect to have wide receiver Sammy Watkins back in the lineup.

Point spread: The Bills opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.5-16.5, Bills (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The visiting team is 4-1 against the spread in the past five meetings between these teams, so the Jaguars have that going for them. Other than that, they played the Detroit Lions close last week in a road loss after taking a 19-16 lead into the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has not played well after winning as an underdog the previous week, going 6-20-2 ATS in its next game. This is a prime letdown spot for the Bills, who have the Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers on deck.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is excited to have Watkins (foot) back on the field after activating him from injured reserve. Even though he is officially listed as questionable, head coach Rex Ryan said he's good to go, per the Bills' official Twitter account, which means quarterback Tyrod Taylor will finally have his top deep threat back in action.

This is a game the Bills should win, given that Jacksonville has dropped 20 of the last 22 away from home and that Buffalo has won six of its last eight against teams with losing records. The key here is not underestimating the Jags, who found a way to beat the Chicago Bears 17-16 on the road in Week 6.

Smart pick

Buffalo is the better team, but that is no guarantee of a cover. Jacksonville started the season on a 4-1 ATS run before failing to cover four of five. Still, the last three games for the Jaguars have all been decided by seven points or fewer.

The Bills ended a three-game losing streak with their 16-12 victory at Cincinnati last week, but they still have issues. Buffalo may beat Jacksonville, but it will not beat the spread.

Betting trends

The visiting team is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in this matchup.

The total has gone over in the Jaguars' last four games against the Bills.

The Bills are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after winning as an underdog.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.