San Diego Chargers vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans will be looking to extend their unblemished record at home to 6-0 on Sunday when they host the hard-luck San Diego Chargers at NRG Stadium.

The Texans return home following a frustrating 27-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City on Monday, which ended a two-game straight-up and against-the-spread win streak. Houston has been solid at home, going 13-4 SU in its last 17 games there and covering in eight of 11.

The Chargers return to action following a bye last weekend. San Diego is a meager 1-4 SU on the road this season but covered in three of those contests.

Point spread: The Texans opened as one-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.7-21.1 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego has struggled with consistency, alternating between wins and losses over its past four games. However, the Chargers have consistently outperformed opposing offenses, outgaining opponents in those contests.

The Chargers have averaged 29.75 points per game over their past four games and trail only the Atlanta Falcons in points scored per game this season at 29.2. San Diego is also an impressive 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games following a loss.

Conversely, the Texans have struggled to generate points this season, failing to score more than 20 points in six of their past nine outings, and they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

As expected, the Texans' stout defense deserves much of the credit for the team's current hold on first place in the AFC South. Houston has held opposing rushers to just 58 yards per game in its past three games and has not surrendered over 300 passing yards in a game this season.

The Chargers have struggled as road favorites, going 3-3 SU in their last six such outings and failing to cover in four of their past five.

San Diego also sits alongside the Jacksonville Jaguars at the bottom of the NFL team stats with 22 total turnovers this season. That stat includes a stunning late-game interception returned for a touchdown that sealed a 31-24 loss to the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago.

Smart pick

The Chargers have blown second-half leads in five of their losses this year, including two on the road, but own a 3-2 ATS road record this season.

The Texans posted a 31-28 victory over San Diego as six-point road chalk three years ago, but they have failed to cover in five all-time meetings with the Chargers.

Look for a rested Chargers squad to avoid recent mistakes and emerge as SU and ATS winners in Houston.

Betting trends

The Chargers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Texans.

The total has gone over in three of the Chargers' last four games against the Texans.

The Texans are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.