NFL1000: Is It Time for Washington to Give Kirk Cousins Franchise QB Money?

The bill is about to become due for the Washington Redskins. Figuratively and literally.

When the 2016 season ends, if the team hasn’t signed quarterback Kirk Cousins to a new contract or franchise-tagged him, Cousins would become the hottest commodity at the position, and certainly a high-dollar target for those franchises currently in quarterback purgatory. The team took that discussion off the table by placing Cousins on the franchise tag for the 2016 season, costing them a fully guaranteed $19.953 million. Another tag in 2017 would up the ante to nearly $24 million.

Such a cap hit could be alleviated by giving Cousins a multi-year contract, but that would cost the team something in the area of $20 million per year total by most accounts and if you are in the camp that believes general manager Scot McCloughan will endeavor to find someone he thinks is better, the second tag would make sense.

Accuracy	Arm	Pressure/Run	Decisions	Position	Overall
20/25	20/25	14/20	16/20	10/10	80/100

Here’s the problem: Right now, Cousins is maxing out the above-average (as opposed to spectacular) skill set he’s developed since Washington selected him in the fourth round of the 2012 draft. Cousins had to bide his time while the Robert Griffin III drama played itself out from RGIII’s sure-thing coronation as the NFL’s Next Big Thing through his decline and ouster.

And Cousins has made the most of his opportunities. Sunday night’s Redskins win over the Green Bay Packers put the team at 6-3-1, and while that’s third place in the rising NFC East, Cousins’ fortunes have been undeniable. He has 3,091 passing yards, the most for any NFC East quarterback in history after 10 games, and if he’s able to match his prorated totals for the season, he will have completed 413 of 614 passes for 4,946 yards, 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Not bad at all.

Still, there are complications when it comes to the question of a long-term contract, and if McCloughan is not yet sold, he’s not the only one. I asked Cian Fahey, our NFL1000 quarterbacks scout, for his take on Cousins following Washington’s 42-24 Sunday win, in which Cousins completed 21 of 30 passes for 375 yards and three touchdowns.

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“Kirk Cousins had a solid game against the Packers. It was like Marcus Mariota's game against Green Bay the previous week where Mariota didn't have to do anything particularly difficult to have success. What stood out was Cousins' consistency doing simple things, something that has been a problem for the course of his career. He didn't throw the ball straight to a defender or repeatedly miss big play opportunities downfield.

“Cousins is very much a quarterback who is elevated by his supporting cast rather than a quarterback who elevates his supporting cast. He functions somewhat competently in ideal conditions and Washington can create those ideal conditions because of the crazy talent they have around him. 

“The question is: How would Cousins look if he didn't have the second-best tight end in the league (Jordan Reed, behind only Rob Gronkowski in Cian’s mind), a dominant pass-blocking line and mismatch-creating receivers in every spot?”

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Cian compared Cousins’ current favorable situation to the one Andy Dalton had in Cincinnati in 2015, and I can see some parallels there, as well as other similarities between the two. When the Bengals have a healthy roster, Dalton benefits from a top receiver in A.J. Green whose catch radius makes up for his errant throws, an excellent seam and red-zone target in tight end Tyler Eifert, an outstanding pass-blocking offensive line and a favorable running game.

Cousins does have a lot of help. The offensive line, overseen by Bill Callahan, has been great in pass-blocking despite injuries. Reed, DeSean Jackson and the rest of Washington’s receivers are in the NFL’s top percentile overall. And the ground game by committee has been above-average. Still, I always wonder in these situations if quarterbacks are at times debited too much for the assets around them.

Is Cousins a system quarterback? Yes. But every quarterback is a system quarterback—it’s just how well they navigate that system and how much over hypothetical replacement level it’s done. We’ve seen in Green Bay over the last two seasons what happens when a coaching staff installs a system that is counter-intuitive to a quarterback’s best interests, and Aaron Rodgers is one heck of a lot better than either Dalton or Cousins.

Cousins has the anti-Rodgers scenario, as well—head coach Jay Gruden and offensive coordinator Sean McVay do a brilliant job of installing route concepts that are favorable to his talents, while reducing his liabilities. But it’s up to the quarterback—any quarterback—to match the system with his own potential, and that’s where I give Cousins a lot of credit when watching his recent tape. More and more, he’s making the kinds of throws that define the best signal-callers in the NFL at any given time.

While it’s true that the best quarterbacks in league history are generally the ones who can make something out of nothing to a heroic degree—and Cousins isn’t in that category—he’s matched the creativity of his coaches with better anticipation, accuracy, velocity and mechanics.

Let’s start with the Green Bay game. Against the Packers’ struggling defense, Cousins had four throws of 20 or more yards in the air—and he completed all four of them—for two touchdowns. His 44-yard scoring toss to Jamison Crowder was particularly impressive.

Crowder beat linebacker coverage out of the left slot, but it was up to Cousins to time the throw perfectly and add the right amount of arc and velocity, and that’s what he did. Would it have been a more impressive throw if Cousins had a Howitzer attached to his shoulder? Sure, but getting the job done is the point here.

Cousins’ second deep touchdown of the game, a 70-yarder to Pierre Garcon, didn’t have the same degree of difficulty—cornerback LaDarius Gunter was clumsy in bail coverage and Garcon raced right by him on a deep post. 

Next, it was time to look at other games against better defenses to see where Cousins’ development has taken him.

I really liked the way Cousins aligned his abilities with smart play design on two plays against the Vikings in Week 10. We’ll start with this 38-yard touchdown pass to tight end Vernon Davis.

The call was for Jackson to run a quick and deep drag route from left to right to take deep coverage off the table, with Davis hitting the left seam from the right side of the formation, and Reed running a deep route to match Davis’. Deep crossers like these are great for moving defenses where you want them to go if you have the time to do it, and Washington’s offensive line allows this more than most.

More importantly, watch the confidence Cousins has here. Reed is wide open, and he’s the smarter play here. But Cousins had the read to Davis and took it anyway, despite the closer coverage from linebacker Anthony Barr. I’m of two minds about the thought process, because it makes me wonder if Cousins is generally too fixated on predetermined reads (I think he can be), but I like the confidence.

We’ll finish with two plays against the Eagles’ excellent defense in Week 6 because they’re a good example of Cousins’ positive traits, and the one thing about him that still worries me.

First, the good side, this 13-yard touchdown pass to Davis. Here, Cousins has a bunch formation on his back side, but he’s looking for Davis on the end zone slant all the way. The important point here is how well Cousins aimed his throw, and the anticipation involved. Again, he had to trust his receiver, and again, the results were positive. Linebacker Nigel Bradham was on track to deflect or intercept the pass, which made Cousins’ timing all the more important.

The one bugaboo about Cousins to me, and the thing that would have me hesitating about a huge contract, is his performance under pressure. When he’s got defenders gaining on him, that’s when his mechanical improvements regress, he gets skittish and he’ll make poor throws.

This interception return for a touchdown by Eagles defensive back Malcolm Jenkins is a perfect example. Cousins gets backside pressure right off the bat, he throws the ball falling away (something he’s always tended to do) and he doesn’t catch Jenkins jumping the route on Davis.

Would I give Kirk Cousins a contract placing him among the league’s highest-paid quarterbacks? Such questions are not always as black-and-white as they might seem. Gruden and McCloughan have to consider where the team is now and how Cousins factors into that, as opposed to any other quarterback they could get in free agency or the draft.

I understand the arguments against—Cousins’ physical limitations give me pause. He is not a scheme-transcendent or play-transcendent player. He may be those things down the road, but right now he’s an above-average quarterback in the right system, with a lot of advantages and a coach who believes in him.

And if I’m McCloughan, and I know I’m keeping Gruden for a number of years, I probably let that be my tiebreaker in favor of making the deal. Gruden has absolute faith his system and he wants quarterbacks who will run it with a minimum of improvisation. He is at his best as a coach when his quarterback is a receptacle for the playbook, and Cousins has proven he can handle that responsibility.

Does such a move leave questions on the table regarding potential overpayment? Absolutely. But when it comes to the quarterback position, many will tell you if you’ve got a guy on the rise, you’re better off with the entity you know than the half-chance of something better.

Though I have great admiration for McCloughan's evaluation skills, I think that’s where the Redskins find themselves. If they gamble, they'd better be right.