Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

With great help from the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott, rookie quarterbacks are 14-14 straight up and 16-12 against the spread as starters in the NFL this season. The Los Angeles Rams will take those odds as they give rookie Jared Goff his first NFL start Sunday against the surging Miami Dolphins at Memorial Coliseum.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.9-18.0 Rams (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins just won a game on the West Coast, beating the Chargers in San Diego last week 31-24 as four-point underdogs. The team then stayed in Southern California this week to avoid back-to-back cross-country flights.

Miami spotted the Chargers the first 10 points of the game, rallied to take a lead in the third quarter and then ultimately won the game when linebacker Kiko Alonso pulled off a 60-yard pick-six with one minute left to go. A few moments later, the Dolphins picked off San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers for the fourth time in the fourth quarter alone to secure the victory.

Miami outrushed the Chargers on the day 106-70 and won the turnover battle 4-1, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill extended his pickless streak to four games. The Dolphins have won and covered their last four games.

At 5-4 on the season, Miami trails 7-3 Denver by a game-and-a-half in the fight for the second AFC Wild Card spot.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Los Angeles just snapped a four-game losing streak with a tough 9-6 win on the East Coast against the New York Jets in New Jersey. The Rams took an early 3-0 lead, trailed at the half 6-3 but won the second half two field goals to none, claiming their third road victory of the season and the cover as one-point favorites.

Los Angeles was outgained by New York but only by a 296-280 margin, and it won time of possession by a 34-26 split.

That's also the second time this season the Rams defense has held an opponent without a touchdown. It has also held three other opponents to a single offensive touchdown. Los Angeles is 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in those five games.

At 4-5 overall, Los Angeles trails 5-3-1 Washington by only a game-and-a-half for the second NFC Wild Card spot.

Smart pick

The Rams have actually outgained four of their last five opponents, while the Dolphins have outgained only two opponents all season. Los Angeles also holds the edge on defense. Starting a rookie at quarterback is a bit concerning, but even Jacoby Brissett won a game for New England earlier this year. The smart money here rides the Rams.

Betting trends

The Dolphins are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Rams.

The total has gone under in 16 of the Rams' last 21 games.

The Rams are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 11.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.