Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders are both in the black on this NFL betting season, going 5-3-1 and 6-3, respectively, against the spread. In a clash of AFC divisional leaders, the Raiders take on the Texans on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Monday night. 

Point spread: The Raiders opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.7-14.9 Raiders (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston is 2-0 both SU and ATS since that debacle in Denver a few weeks ago after winning at Jacksonville last week 24-21. The Texans took a 7-0 lead three minutes into the game on a Kareem Jackson pick-six and never trailed from there, taking an outright victory as three-point divisional road dogs.

On the day, Houston outrushed the Jaguars 181-80, and while quarterback Brock Osweiler only threw for 99 yards, he tossed two touchdown passes without an interception.

In Week 8, the Texans defeated the Detroit Lions 20-13, outrushing the Lions 105-58. At 6-3 overall, Houston leads the AFC South by 1.5 games over the second-place Tennessee Titans.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders carry a three-game winning streak into this contest after downing the Denver Broncos 30-20 in Week 9. The Raiders then enjoyed last week off.

Oakland scored the first 13 points of the game against the Broncos and never led by less than a touchdown from there, on its way to a cover as a one-point favorite. The Raiders dominated the ground game and the clock, outrushing Denver 218-33 and winning time of possession by a commanding 41-19 margin.

In Week 8, Oakland outrushed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 128-102 in a 30-24 overtime victory, and the Raiders outrushed Jacksonville 144-105 in a 33-16 Week 7 win.

At 7-2 overall, Oakland is tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the lead in the AFC West, although the Chiefs own the tiebreaker on the Raiders—at least for the moment.

Smart pick

Oakland is nearly 100 yards per game better offensively than Houston, and it has now outrushed six of nine opponents on the season. And how many games do the Texans think they'll win by throwing for 99 yards?

The Raiders have won six of their last seven outright—their best stretch of ball in over a decade—and they're well-rested coming off their bye week. The smart peso here plays Oakland, minus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in three of the Texans' last four games against the Raiders.

The Texans are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road against the Raiders.

The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.