Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two teams heading in different directions will meet in New Orleans on Sunday when the surging Saints (4-4) host the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos (6-3) as slight home favorites after some early line moves. The Saints have won four of their last five games while going 5-0 against the spread following an 0-3 start.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.3-20.2 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos may not be the same team they were a year ago when they made their run for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, but they still have a top-notch defense that can slow down the Saints offensively. Despite the team's hot run recently, New Orleans remains flawed defensively and could struggle in a low-scoring battle.

Denver simply cannot afford to get into a deep hole like last week against the Oakland Raiders and should learn from that experience. The Broncos have beaten two of the three NFC South squads they have faced so far this season, and they have won the past four meetings.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are back on track heading into this home game and would be wise to follow Oakland's game plan from last Sunday night. New Orleans pounded the ball on the ground against the San Francisco 49ers in a 41-23 rout on the road, with running back Mark Ingram rushing for a season-high 158 yards on 15 carries and scoring one touchdown.

Denver's weakness is run defense, and the Raiders took advantage of that en route to a 30-20 victory. The Saints are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 at home after covering consecutive games at the Superdome.

Smart pick

Good defenses beat good offenses most of the time, and the Broncos still have the best secondary in the league. Look for them to frustrate New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who has struggled against top defenses throughout his career.

Denver is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on the road after losing its previous game away from home. Plus, the Saints are just 1-6 SU in their last seven games following consecutive wins, so take the Broncos to bounce back from the loss to Oakland with a small upset victory on the NFL point spreads.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Saints.

The total has gone over in five of the Broncos' last seven games against the Saints.

The total has gone over in eight of the Saints' last nine games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.