Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

First place in the competitive AFC West will be on the line Sunday night when the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos visit the Oakland Raiders.

The Broncos rolled to their sixth straight-up win of the season last weekend, knocking off the San Diego Chargers 27-19 as 3.5-point home chalk. Denver has won eight of its last 10 games SU.

The Raiders continued to pile up the points in last weekend's 30-24 overtime road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game pegged as a pick'em. Oakland is 5-0 SU on the road, but it dropped a 26-10 decision to the Kansas City Chiefs in its last home date three weeks ago.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as one-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22-21 Raiders (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos once again showed their defensive chops in last week's win, limiting the Chargers to 369 total yards and their lowest point total of the season. Denver dropped a 21-13 decision in San Diego three weeks ago but has not recorded consecutive SU losses on the road in over four years.

Denver owns the NFL's third-ranked defense and has surrendered just 15 points per game in three road dates. The Broncos' pass defense is tops in the league, limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 183.9 yards per game.

Oakland escaped with a win last week despite exhibiting a lack of discipline that resulted in an NFL-record 23 penalties, costing it a whopping 200 yards.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

Oakland scored 30 or more points for a fourth time this season in last week's win over the Buccaneers. The Raiders assault was once again led by quarterback Derek Carr, who tossed for a spectacular 513 yards and four touchdowns.

The Raiders have consistently defied the oddsmakers this season, going 4-1 SU and against the spread in games where they have not been pegged as favorites.

Another big day is required from the Raiders' rush defense, which has held opponents to just 93 yards per game over the past three SU victories.

Smart pick

The road-warrior Raiders are undefeated SU and ATS in five games away from Oakland Coliseum. However, Oakland is winless ATS in its past seven games at home. And the Broncos have been dominant on the road against AFC West rivals, going 15-1 SU in their past 16 and 14-2 ATS.

Look for Denver to frustrate the Raiders offense and capitalize on mistakes en route to a SU and ATS win on Sunday.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Raiders.

The Raiders are 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games at home.

The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.