Tennessee Titans vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Diego Chargers are often dangerous as underdogs, but they've done little good lately as favorites, going just 3-9 against the spread their last 12 times out giving points. The Chargers will go off as favorites again when they host Tennessee for an interesting AFC matchup Sunday afternoon at Qualcomm Stadium. 

Point spread: The Chargers opened as five-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.4-22.8 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Titans can cover the spread

After starting this season 1-3, the Titans have won three of their last four games, including a 36-22 decision over Jacksonville last Thursday. So Tennessee has already exceeded last season's win total of three.

The Titans jumped out to a 27-0 halftime lead on the Jaguars last week and cruised from there, covering easily as three-point favorites. Two late Jacksonville scores made the final tally a bit misleading. On the night, the Titans outgained the Jags 494-370, outrushed Jacksonville 214-48 and won time of possession by a 34-26 margin. Tennessee has now outgained three of its last four opponents and outrushed its last seven foes.

At 4-4, the Titans are just a game out of first place in the AFC South and own a solid 41.6 percent chance of winning the division, according to PredictionMachine.com.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego had won two straight but lost a tough one at Denver last week 27-19. The Chargers fell down early in the third quarter 17-7, pulled to within 24-19 midway through the fourth and drove to the Denver 2-yard line with three minutes left. But four straight pass attempts against that great Broncos defense came up empty.

On the afternoon, San Diego outgained Denver 369-324, outrushed the Broncos 123-57 and won time of possession 33-27. But two Philip Rivers interceptions—he threw three on the day—resulted directly in 14 Denver points. The Chargers also missed a field goal, had an extra point blocked and failed on a two-point conversion.

Two weeks ago, San Diego won at Atlanta in overtime, and it beat the Broncos in Week 6. The Chargers have also outgained four of their last five opponents.

Smart pick

Tennessee likes to run the ball (152.3 rushing yards per game), while San Diego relies on Rivers and the passing game. And in matchups like this, the better running game is usually the better bet. Plus, as mentioned above, the Chargers probably shouldn't be giving points to anybody. The smart money here takes the Titans.

Betting trends

The Titans are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Chargers.

The Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after a win.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.