Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars are finding heightened expectations tough. Expected to contend for a playoff spot this season, instead the Jags are struggling at 2-5 straight up and 3-4 against the spread. Kansas City, on the other hand, owns a three-game winning streak. Two teams moving in opposite directions run into each other when the Chiefs host Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.9-12.4 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags had won two straight to get to 2-3 on the season, but they have lost two in a row, including a 36-22 decision at Tennessee last Thursday. Jacksonville fell down 27-0 at the half and had to score twice late just to make the final score slightly more respectable. Maybe it can blame that one on the uniforms.

The Jags are only minus-19 in per-game total yardage this season, and while they're tied for 26th in points allowed at 28 per game, their defense ranks 13th overall. If they could just do something about that minus-eight turnover differential, second-worst in the league, they could start winning some games again.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City quietly sits at 5-2 overall, just a half-game out of first place in the tough AFC West, after clipping the Colts in Indianapolis last week 30-14. The Chiefs took a 3-0 lead five minutes into the game and never trailed on their way to a third straight victory and a cover as 2.5-point road favorites.

On the day, Kansas City outgained the Colts 422-277, held the ball for almost 34 minutes and won the turnover battle 2-0. And while Chiefs starting quarterback Alex Smith left the game after having his head slammed into the turf a couple of times, backup Nick Foles came in and hit on 16 of 22 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Kansas City doesn't dazzle; it's ranked 14th in total offense and 15th in total defense. The Chiefs just keep winning games, and they remain in the thick of the chase to win the AFC West division title.

Smart pick

One team is 5-2, the other 2-5, but in reality, these two outfits are close in talent. Jacksonville's just got to stop turning the ball over. Also, Kansas City is banged up and will start Foles at QB, per BJ Kissel of Chiefs.com. It's not easy betting on a team that looked so bad its last time out, but the smart money here plays the Jags plus the points.

Betting trends

The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the Chiefs.

The visiting team is 3-1 ATS in its last four games in this matchup.

The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home against teams with losing records.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.