Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be trying to stay within striking distance of top spot in the NFC South standings when they welcome the first-place Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.

The 3-4 Buccaneers are coming off a disappointing 30-24 overtime loss to Oakland last weekend in a game pegged as a pick'em at the sportsbooks. That loss dropped the Bucs to 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their past five home contests.

The 5-3 Falcons ended a two-game SU losing streak with a narrow 33-32 win over Green Bay last weekend but failed to cover for a second straight week. However, Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS in road contests this season.

Point spread: The Buccaneers opened as one-point favorites. The total was 49.5 early in the week.

Odds Shark computer pick: Falcons 29.8, Buccaneers 22.6 (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons take the NFL's most potent offense down to Tampa Bay. Atlanta has averaged 32.8 points per game this season and will face a porous Buccaneers defense that surrendered a stunning 626 total yards in last week's loss to Oakland.

Quarterback Matt Ryan has been the catalyst behind Atlanta's impressive offensive performance. Ryan leads all NFL passers with 2,636 yards and has connected in the end zone with 10 different targets for 19 touchdowns.

Atlanta visits a Buccaneers squad that has struggled at home against teams with winning records, going 1-9 SU in its past 10.

Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston has been steady but failed to throw for more than 180 yards in two of his past four games.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Buccaneers offense has come to life of late, averaging 25 points per game over the past three games after tallying just seven points in two of the team's previous three outings. Tampa Bay's ground game is also on the uptick, averaging 154.7 yards per game during that stretch.

Tampa Bay faces a Falcons squad that has wilted in recent contests while pegged as betting chalk. Atlanta is just 1-7 SU in its past eight as a favorite and has failed to cover in its past 11.

The Falcons opened as small underdogs for Thursday night, but the line has shifted in their favor.

The Buccaneers have regularly rewarded bettors during the month of November, posting an impressive 13-4-1 ATS record over their past 18 such outings.

Smart pick

Atlanta has struggled in recent matchups with the Buccaneers, losing three straight SU and ATS. However, the Falcons have dominated in recent visits to Tampa Bay as betting chalk, winning six straight SU and going 5-0-1 ATS.

Look for Atlanta to extend its lead atop the NFC South with a SU and ATS victory on Thursday night.

Betting trends

• The favored team is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games in this matchup.
• The Buccaneers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games in November.
• The total has gone over in seven of the Buccaneers' last 10 games.

All betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, Odds Shark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.