Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers (4-3) look to bounce back from a tough loss on the road when they host the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) on Sunday as solid home favorites.

The Packers fell to the Atlanta Falcons 33-32 last Sunday in the final minute after leading for much of the game but still covered the number as three-point underdogs to improve to 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games.

Point spread: The Packers opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.2-18.4 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings with Green Bay, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. In addition, the Colts have gone 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games when listed as underdogs of 7.5 points or less.

That is the scenario again here, as Indy seems to get extra motivated when playing supposedly better opponents the team is capable of beating. In fact, that happened just two weeks ago when the Colts visited the Tennessee Titans and won 34-26 despite closing as 3.5-point road dogs.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers have gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss, including 2-0 SU and ATS already this season after suffering each of their first two setbacks. They have had no problem scoring in their last two games, averaging 29 points since falling 30-16 to the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week 6.

The issue last week was on the defensive side of the ball with the team playing without some key players, including linebacker Clay Matthews and its top three cornerbacks. Green Bay is hoping some of them will be back against Andrew Luck and the Indy offense.

Smart pick

Similar to last week's shootout in Atlanta, this matchup has high-scoring affair written all over it at Lambeau Field. Neither defense has played particularly well lately, and the total has gone over in the past five meetings between the teams.

The over has also cashed in eight of the last 10 road games on the NFL lines for the Colts, who will need to be prepared to score more than 30 points like the Falcons to have any shot at staying in this game.

Betting trends

The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Packers.

The total has gone over in the Colts' last five games against the Packers.

The Packers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games after a loss.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.