Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Louisville covered three touchdowns last week but larger spreads had been cutting into the Cardinals' profits, forcing a recent 0-2-1 slide against the numbers. Louisville goes against another big number when it visits Virginia on Saturday afternoon in Charlottesville.

Point spread: The Cardinals opened as 27-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. Line updates and matchup report.

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 52.0-17.8 Cardinals (College football picks on every game)

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals continued their quest for a berth in the College Football Playoff last week by embarrassing North Carolina State 54-13. Louisville struck just a minute-and-a-half into the game on a 36-yard Lamar Jackson scoring bolt, led 17-0 after one quarter and 44-0 at the half on its way to an easy win and cover of the 19-point spread.

On the afternoon the Cardinals outgained the Wolfpack 553-250, as Jackson continued his quest for the Heisman Trophy by throwing for 355 yards and three touchdowns and running for 76 yards and that other score. He's now accounted for 34 touchdowns this season, 18 through the air and 16 on the ground.

At 4-1 in conference play Louisville trails first-place Clemson by basically a game-and-a-half in the ACC Atlantic. But if they can win out, with some style, and get a little help from elsewhere, the Cardinals still have a shot at the CFP.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers can cover the spread

Virginia had won two games in a row, beating decent Central Michigan and Duke teams, but it has lost its last two matches, 45-31 to Pitt and, last week, 35-14 to North Carolina. The Cavaliers, as 10-point 'dogs, battled the Tar Heels to a 7-7 tie well into the second quarter, and it pulled to within four points of the spread with nine minutes to go, but could get no closer.

Two weeks ago Virginia led the Panthers 28-21 late into the second quarter, before fading. The Cavs actually outgained Pitt that day, but gave up touchdowns on a 93-yard kickoff return and a 59-yard interception return.

Virginia is 2-0 ATS in two meetings with Louisville since the Cardinals joined the ACC. Two years ago the Cavs pulled a short upset of Louisville 23-21, and last year, while they lost 38-31, they covered as 13-point underdogs.

Smart pick

There's not a whole lot of doubt as to the winner of this game; the only thing that matters to bettors is the final margin. Louisville has already won five times this season by 30 points or more, and while Jackson gets all the ink, nobody talks about the defense, which ranks 10th in the country overall. Plus, playing on the road means the spread is a tad more amenable. The smart money here plays the Cards.

Betting trends

Virginia is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after a loss.

The total has gone over in six of Louisville's last seven games.

Louisville is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games on the road after consecutive home games.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.