Alvarez vs. McGregor: Early Fight Predictions, Keys to Victory for UFC 205

UFC featherweight champion Conor McGregor is looking to make history when he faces Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight title at UFC 205 on Nov. 12. McGregor (20-3) will become the first person in the organisation's history to hold two belts if he defeats Alvarez (28-4) in front the crowd at Madison Square Garden, New York City.

Unsurprisingly the two fighters have already exchanged heated words, with the American questioning McGregor’s ability to endure a lengthy battle and the Irish fighter laughing off Alvarez’s claim to the belt.

“He got blessed,” McGregor said of Alvarez's fight against Rafael dos Anjos, as per Michael Kelleher of Sky Sports. “He got blessed with a lucky shot. His UFC career has been horrendous.

"He's very, very lucky to be in the position he is. He understands that. That's why he took this fight for the money he was on for the last fight. I mean, that says it all."

In retaliation Alavrez claimed, per Kelleher, that "this guy's got eight minutes of fight in him and that's it. He quits after eight minutes every fight. He's not a championship fighter. He's never been. And he's never ever fought anyone in the UFC like me. Ever.”

It should be a fascinating matchup between two different fighting styles. Alvarez is more of an all-rounder capable of adapting his game to each new opponent, while McGregor is an explosive fighter who looks to get things done early.

Both are very aggressive and possess phenomenal career records. The fight hangs on a knife edge, and looks set to be one of the most watched in history:

Key Battles

McGregor’s Opening Blast vs. Alvarez’s Endurance

The Irish fighter’s biggest asset is his powerful left hand, which he will look to use repeatedly in an attempt to end this fight as quickly as possible. He enters the contest with 18 career KO/TKOs, with six of these coming in UFC. 

McGregor's desire to win early is partly due to the fact that he seems to fade as fights go on—as we saw during his second bout with Nate Diaz—and so Alvarez will do everything he can to absorb the early onslaught and tire his opponent out. Firas Zahabi, head coach of Tristar gym, thinks that going for an early KO is the only option for McGregor:

“Forget about pacing. It’s do or die," he said, per Anton Tabuena of Bloody Elbow. "Round one or two. You either become two-division champion in round one or two, or you are going to go down.”

However, McGregor’s explosive tactics failed to put Diaz away in both of their fights. During the first clash, he was easily choked into submission after Diaz absorbed the early punches and found a big shot of his own. A similar story could unfold against the dynamic fighting style Alvarez, whose durability gives him a slight advantage.

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

McGregor’s Confidence v Alvarez’s Fast Start

Alvarez has only been beaten by KO once in his 13 year career, and so McGregor's early pressing need to be more considered than ever. As seen during his recent blitz of Dos Anjos, the current lightweight champion is more than capable of springing into an instant barrage of his own.

Despite being the underdog against Dos Anjos, Alvarez stopped his opponent in the first round after some ferocious early pressure. McGregor will be wary of this, but won't lack for confidence and will back himself to inflict early damage. This can leave him open to punishment if Alvarez decides to quickly move forward. Conor often has a stalking style when his opponent is on the backfoot, something Alvarez is unlikely to allow.

"Whenever I get a guy that everyone is high up about, that he's really dangerous, that he's killing opponents, I usually knock those guys out," Alvarez said after the Dos Anjos fight, per Danny Segura of MMA Fighting.

"It has nothing to do with me being good or me having a certain technique. I get scared. I literary get afraid to the point where my body reacts in ways that it just makes for phenomenal performances."

Given that McGregor is the hyped-up favourite who strikes fear into his opponents, Alvarez will feel he can capitalise just simply by applying pressure from the off. It should be a tight encounter, but the American is smart and savvy enough to outlast the ferociousness of his competitor.

Prediction: Alvarez to win in round four