Miami Hurricanes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Odds, Football Pick

The Miami Hurricanes started this season with four straight wins/covers, but they've now lost three straight games both straight up and against the spread. So it's a chilly Miami outfit that heads up to South Bend to take on a faltering Notre Dame team Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as one-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.2-24.1 Hurricanes (College football picks on every game)

Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

Miami began this season 4-0; then came that one-point loss to Florida State followed by a tough loss to North Carolina. Most recently, the Hurricanes suffered a 37-16 defeat at Virginia Tech last Thursday. Miami fell down by two scores against the Hokies and pulled to within 23-16 midway through the third quarter but could get no closer.

Quarterback Brad Kaaya tried to keep the Hurricanes in the game, throwing for 323 yards and two touchdowns, but he suffered eight sacks, had to hurry many throws and threw one interception.

Two weeks ago, Miami fell down to the Tar Heels 20-3 and closed to within one score with seven minutes left on the clock before fizzling. And before that, they led the Seminoles at one point 13-0 but had an extra point that would have tied the game with a minute to go blocked. If Miami could just play for four full quarters, it might right its ship.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The case for Notre Dame is just as tough to make. Three weeks ago, the Irish lost in the rain at North Carolina State 10-3, and two weeks ago, they lost at home to Stanford 17-10. Notre Dame, thankfully, had last week off.

The Irish led the Cardinal at the half 10-0 but gave up a pick-six on their first possession of the second half. Notre Dame then had a bad snap result in a safety, trimming its lead to 10-9. On the ensuing possession, the Irish allowed Stanford to drive 67 yards to a touchdown to fall behind, and while they drove to the Cardinal eight-yard line in the final minute, they couldn't punch it in.

On the night, Notre Dame actually outgained Stanford 307-296, but those nine points they gave the Cardinal proved costly.

Three weeks ago, the Irish gave the Wolfpack seven points on a blocked punt. They also turned the ball over four times either on turnovers or downs inside North Carolina State territory in losing by a touchdown. If Notre Dame could just eliminate the mistakes, it might get back on track.

Smart pick

Neither of these teams inspires a lot of betting confidence at the moment, but while the Irish have outgained three of their last four opponents, Hurricanes foes have outgained them in three straight games. And Notre Dame is coming off a bye week. The smart money here sides with the Irish.

Betting trends

Notre Dame is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games in October.

Miami is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games in Week 9.

Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after consecutive losses.

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.