Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Texas still dominates the all-time series with Baylor, but the Bears are working on it, winning four of the last six meetings straight up while going 5-1 against the spread. Baylor will look to make it 5-for7 against the Longhorns and stay unbeaten on the season when it visits Austin on Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Bears opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.5-30.1 Bears (college football picks on every game here)

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor began this season with some uncertainty following the offseason turbulence that led to the change in head coaches. But with their 6-0 start, the Bears find themselves in the thick of the Big 12 race and in the running for a College Football Playoff berth.

Two weeks ago, Baylor crushed Kansas, 49-7, then took last week off. The Bears grabbed a 7-0 lead on the Jayhawks three minutes into the game on a Seth Russell touchdown run, led 42-0 at the half and eased home from there, covering the 33-point spread. For the day, Baylor rushed for 246 yards and cleared the bench, as 11 different Bears ran the ball.

BU has now outgained every opponent this season by an average of 229 yards per game and outrushed five of six foes.

Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

Texas may only be 3-4 on the season, but it's also 4-3 ATS, losing some tough games. Earlier this year, the Longhorns lost that crazy game at Cal, 50-43, a couple weeks later they lost by five to Oklahoma and last week they lost at Kansas State, 24-21. Texas trailed the Wildcats all day, pulled to within one score with just under a minute to go but came up empty on an onside kick.

Quarterback Shane Buechele helped keep the Longhorns in the game, hitting on 17 of 24 throws for 222 yards and two touchdowns without a pick. The freshman now owns a 15-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season.

Texas has actually outgained and outrushed five of seven opponents this season, a ratio more suggestive of a winning team rather than one that's a game under .500.

Smart pick

The Longhorns upset Baylor last year in Waco, so the Bears might have revenge in mind. Also, the vibes with these two teams come into play: Baylor has the "us against the world" thing going, while Texas seems a bit downtrodden and with a coach on the hot seat. The smart money at sports betting sites backs the Bears.

Betting trends

Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against Texas.

The total has gone under in seven of Texas's last nine games in October.

Baylor is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after consecutive wins.

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.