Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 25, 2016

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) before an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)
Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

The Green Bay Packers (4-2) will try to beat the Atlanta Falcons (4-3) for the fifth straight time on Sunday when they visit the Georgia Dome as road underdogs. Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in its last 10 games as a betting favorite.

      

Point spread: The Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites. The total was 52.5 early in the week.

Odds Shark computer pick: Falcons 33.1, Packers 18.7 (NFL picks on every game)

       

Why the Packers can cover the spread

In addition to those two favorable betting trends, Green Bay also appears to be in better current form and will be looking to build off a strong offensive performance in the second half of Thursday night's 26-10 win over the Chicago Bears.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw all three of his touchdown passes in the second half for the Packers after they briefly trailed 10-6 and finished with a season-high 326 passing yards.

Rodgers had one of the best performances of his career on the road against the Falcons in a 48-21 rout during the 2011 playoffs en route to winning the Super Bowl, throwing for 366 yards with four touchdowns, including one on the ground.

        

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta should not be in full panic mode considering the team's last two losses have been by a combined five points, but many are still wondering if another swoon similar to last year could occur.

The Falcons got off to a 5-0 start in 2015 before dropping seven of eight and seeing the Carolina Panthers run away with the division title. They lost a lot of close games during that skid as well and have learned from those mistakes heading into this key matchup with Green Bay.

Despite losing, Atlanta has covered the spread in the past two meetings along with seven of the last 10, so that is at least promising.

       

Smart pick

The most recent meeting between these teams took place two years ago at Lambeau Field and saw the Falcons rally back from a 24-point halftime deficit to cover the spread as 13.5-point dogs in a 43-37 loss. This will be a similarly high-scoring affair, as the high total suggests, so look for the over to cash again here at online betting sites in another offensive shootout.

        

Betting trends

  • The Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Falcons.
  • The Falcons are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Packers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games in October.

        

All betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, Odds Shark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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