Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last six meetings with the rival Miami Dolphins, winning last year's two games by a combined score of 74-31. A hot Bills outfit shoots for a third straight win in this series and a fifth straight victory overall on Sunday afternoon at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium.

Point spread: The Bills opened as two-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.9-21.3 Dolphins (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bills can cover the spread

With four wins in a row, Buffalo might be the hottest team in the AFC following last week's 45-16 slamming of the San Francisco 49ers. The Bills trailed early in that game and only led 17-13 at the half but pulled away from there, winning the second half, 28-3, and covering as seven-point favorites.

On the afternoon, Buffalo outgained the 49ers, 491-300, piling up 312 yards on the ground, as for the second straight week running back LeSean McCoy topped the 100-yard mark in the first half alone. He eventually finished with three touchdown runs.

The Bills began their recent run with a 33-18 victory over Arizona, then defeated the (Tom Brady-less) New England Patriots, 16-0, then won out in Los Angeles, 30-19. Buffalo also outrushed each of those four opponents by an average of well over 100 yards per game, which is usually a good way to win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins just snapped a two-game losing streak with a surprisingly easy 30-15 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Miami took an early 3-0 lead, went ahead for good at 9-8 midway through the second quarter, pushed that advantage to 23-8 in the third quarter and iced the victory on Jay Ajayi's 62-yard scoring bolt in the last minute.

On the day the Dolphins outgained the Steelers 474-297, racking up 222 yards on the ground, as Ajayi finished with 204 yards, and won time of possession by 13 minutes. Clearly, it was Miami's best performance of the season. Now, can they build on it?

Smart pick

Buffalo is outrushing opponents by over 60 yards per game this season, while Miami is getting outrushed by 50 yards per game. Also, in two meetings last year, both Bills wins, Buffalo outrushed the Dolphins by over 200 yards total. As long as McCoy is good to go, the Bills are the smart bet here.

Betting trends

The Bills are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are 2-6 SU in their last eight games against teams with winning records.

The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.