San Diego Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (4-2) return home on Sunday from a tough two-game stretch on the road as they host the San Diego Chargers (2-4) as solid favorites.

The Falcons split the pair of road games against tough opponents, topping the Denver Broncos 23-16 and falling to the Seattle Seahawks 26-24, but they covered the number both times to improve to 5-1 against the spread on the season.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as six-point favorites; the total was 51.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.2-21.2 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Despite the fact that Atlanta is riding a five-game winning streak ATS since losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 2.5-point home chalk in their season opener, San Diego's opponent has seemingly played to the level of its competition for the most part so far this season.

Outside of back-to-back routs of the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers, the other four games for the Falcons have all been decided by seven points or less. Because this is not a divisional game, the Chargers may also catch Atlanta in a letdown spot, something that is highly likely considering the level of competition faced lately.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons are clearly the better team, and their two-game trip to the West Coast continued to prove that. They have played four of their last five games away from home and won three of them straight up while going 4-0 ATS.

In their last game at the Georgia Dome, they routed the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers 48-33, with quarterback Matt Ryan throwing for 503 yards and wide receiver Julio Jones catching 12 passes for 300 yards. Just imagine what they can do against a San Diego defense that has struggled against the pass.

Smart pick

The Chargers have dropped the past six meetings with Atlanta and six straight as road underdogs. However, the Falcons have failed to cover nine in a row as favorites, losing five consecutive games in that role at home.

Atlanta should be able to win to end the latter skid, but covering is another story. Look for San Diego to stay within a touchdown, as the team is on a 12-2 ATS run when listed as an underdog of six points or more.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in the Chargers' last seven games against the Falcons.

The Falcons are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.

The Chargers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of seven points or more.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.