Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Los Angeles Rams will be aiming for a fourth upset win in their last five games on Sunday afternoon when they battle the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.

The Rams had posted three outright wins as underdogs, including road victories in Arizona and Tampa Bay, but paid for costly mistakes in last week's 30-19 home loss to Buffalo. The Lions ended a three-game straight-up and against-the-spread slide last week with a 24-23 home win over Philadelphia and have seen their two home games to date settled by just one point.

Point spread: The Lions opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.3-16.8 Lions (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Detroit's previously red-hot offense has cooled off in recent weeks. That creates an opportunity for Los Angeles' defenders, who have held opposing passers to less than 240 yards three times this season and sealed their recent win in Arizona by forcing five turnovers.

The Lions have struggled to score points in recent outings as favorites, scoring 20 or fewer points in five of their past 10 such outings while going 3-7 ATS.

The Rams defense needs to regroup after allowing Buffalo's LeSean McCoy to run for 150 yards last week but should have an easier job against the Lions' 28th-ranked ground game. That should allow Los Angeles to focus on harassing Lions pivot Matthew Stafford, who threw effectively, but sparingly, in last week's win over the Eagles.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Veteran passer Stafford found the end zone three times on just 19 completions last week against Philadelphia, bouncing back from a two-pick performance in a 17-14 loss in Chicago in Week 4.

Stafford will likely be more active against a banged-up Rams defense that has surrendered at least 28 points three times this season and will dearly miss cornerback Trumaine Johnson, who remains sidelined with an ankle injury.

The Rams have also been a brutal wager when pegged as a road underdog of four or fewer points, going 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS while scoring 18 or fewer points in four of their past six such outings.

Smart pick

Los Angeles paid out at the sportsbooks in road wins over Tampa Bay and Arizona, despite being outgained and out-possessed by wide margins.

However, the Rams face their toughest opposing passer this week in the experienced Stafford, who is effective at getting the ball downfield and will be looking to pick apart the Rams' hobbled defense.

Look for Detroit to halt the Rams' impressive underdog run with a solid SU and ATS win.

Betting trends

The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Lions.

The Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as favorite.

The Rams are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 6.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.