BYU Cougars vs. Michigan State Spartans: Betting Odds, College Football Pick

BYU is a bastion of western college football and as such doesn't venture too far east often. And that might be a smart thing, considering the Cougars are just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread in their last six treks into the Eastern time zone.

BYU heads into Big Ten country this week for a battle with the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.

Point spread: The Spartans opened as five-point favorites.

Odds Shark computer pick: Spartans 28.4, Cougars 23.6 (College football picks on every game)

Why the BYU Cougars can cover the spread

Brigham Young may only be 2-3 on the season, but it's 4-1 ATS following a wild 55-53 victory over Toledo last Friday.

The Cougars grabbed a 21-7 lead in the first quarter, fell down 28-21 early in the third, and led again and trailed again several times in the fourth quarter. They then trailed by a point with just over a minute to go but drove 71 yards to the game-winning field goal with no time left on the clock.

BYU cranked out 586 yards of offense, 338 of which came on the ground, as running back Jamaal Williams went off for 286 yards and five touchdowns. The Cougars are on a string of five close games in a row to start this season. Their three losses have come by a total of seven points.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

The Spartans are struggling at the moment, having lost two straight games, including a 24-21 overtime decision at Indiana last week. Michigan State led the Hoosiers 7-0 at the half and 14-0 deep into the third quarter but fell down 21-14 when IU rallied for three straight scores.

The Spartans then drove 75 yards in 13 plays to tie the score at 21 with just 11 seconds remaining. Michigan State missed a long field goal in the top of the first OT, then committed a personal foul on a missed Hoosiers field goal, setting Indiana up for a chip-shot game-winner.

MSU also had an early field goal blocked, fumbled a ball away inside Indiana territory and got called for a crucial holding penalty that negated a first down when the Spartans still had the lead and were driving for more.

On the night, Michigan State gained 438 yards to the Hoosiers' 437, out-rushed them 175-156 and held time of possession for over 33 minutes compared to Indiana's 26.

Unfortunately, the Spartans also committed 11 penalties, several of the costly variety, for 98 yards.

Smart pick

Michigan State is not quite the team that went 36-5 over the previous three seasons. Yes, the Spartans beat Notre Dame, but that win doesn't look as good now with the Irish also struggling.

BYU, meanwhile, is 7-3 ATS its last 10 times out as an underdog. Despite their recent problems in the east, the Cougars are the smart choice here.

Betting trends

• Michigan State is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games after a loss.
• The total has gone under in four of BYU's last five games on the road.
• BYU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on the road after a loss on the road.

All betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, Odds Shark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.