Michigan Wolverines vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Odds, Football Pick

It's almost hard to believe, but just two seasons ago, Rutgers was favored over Michigan and backed that status up with a victory over the Wolverines. However, fortunes are now reversed, and the Scarlet Knights are big home underdogs for Saturday's match with Michigan in Piscataway.     

Point spread: The Wolverines opened as 26.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.0-10.0 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Maize and Blue passed their first real test of this season, holding off Wisconsin last week at the Big House 14-7. But while the Wolverines came up one score short of covering the spread as 10-point favorites, in reality, they dominated the Badgers.

Michigan took the first lead on a Khalid Hill plunge early in the second quarter, allowed Wisconsin to tie the game midway through the third and then took the lead for good on a beautiful Wilton Speight-to-Amara Darboh 46-yard hookup down the sideline midway through the fourth quarter.

But along the way, the Wolverines missed three makeable field goals, which certainly would have helped deal with the spread. On the day, Michigan outgained the Badgers 349-159 and held a 36-24 advantage in time of possession.

Why the Rutgers Scarlet Knights can cover the spread

The Knights are coming off one of those lost performances last week of which the details are better left unmentioned—a 58-0 defeat at Ohio State. Rutgers was totally outclassed; about the best thing to be said is that it's over.

Two weeks ago, though, the Knights showed they could play with decent competition, giving Iowa a tough game before falling 14-7. Rutgers played the Hawkeyes to a scoreless tie well into the second quarter and had a chance to take the first lead but got stuffed on a 4th-and-goal attempt then immediately allowed Iowa to drive down the field for a touchdown.

Early in the fourth quarter, the Knights tied the game on a Chris Laviano-to-Andre Patton scoring connection, and, later, again trailing by seven points, had another scoring opportunity but came up short on a fourth down inside the Iowa red zone and couldn't get the ball back.

Rutgers outgained Iowa that day 383-355, but the one turnover it committed proved costly. Prior to that, the Knights had won two games in a row over Howard and New Mexico, scoring 89 points in the process.

Smart pick

Michigan totally outplayed Wisconsin last week; that margin of victory should have been more. Meanwhile, Rutgers has played three FBS teams this season, losing those games by a total score of 120-20, and it recently lost its best offensive threat in wide receiver/kick returner Janarion Grant, who's down with an ankle injury.

How are the Knights going to score Saturday? The smart money here likes Michigan, on the road, where the spread is friendlier.

Betting trends

Rutgers is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home after a loss at home.

Michigan is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after an ATS loss.

Michigan is 7-0 SU in its last seven games against teams with losing records.

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.