Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans hold the upper hand in the recent rivalry with the Tennessee Titans, sweeping the season series in three of the last four years and going 8-1-1 against the spread over the last 10 meetings. The Texans will try to bounce back from an embarrassing performance last week when they host the Titans on Sunday afternoon at NRG Stadium.

Point spread: The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 39 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, per the Odds Shark computer: 24.8-15.1 Texans (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Titans can cover the spread

With their 1-2 start, the Titans are already one-third of the way toward equaling last season's win total of three. Tennessee opened with a 25-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings and then rallied to win against the Detroit Lions 16-15 in Week 2. Last week, the Titans lost a close one at home to the Oakland Raiders 17-10.

Tennessee fell down to the Raiders 17-3 at the half but got within one score midway through the third quarter. But it couldn't complete the comeback. The Titans reached the Oakland 3-yard line with a minute to go, but an unnecessary roughness penalty pushed them back to the 18. Three plays later, they scored on a Marcus Mariota-to-Andre Johnson connection, but an offensive pass interference call negated it. The Titans had one more crack at the potential tie but came up empty on a non-call on a fourth-down pass in the end zone.

On the afternoon, Tennessee outgained the Raiders 393-368 and outrushed them 181-123, as newcomer DeMarco Murray ran for 114, the first Titans running back to hit the century mark in over two seasons. The Titans have now outgained and outrushed two of three opponents this season.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans were 2-0 before laying an egg against the New England Patriots last Thursday, losing 27-0. Houston fumbled away two kickoffs, resulting in 14 Patriots points, and only ventured into New England territory twice, the deepest reaching only the 35-yard line.

The Texans still outgained the Patriots 284-282, and they have outgained each opponent this season. But poor field position and three turnovers proved too tough to overcome last week.

Houston may have lost three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt to injury, but teams often rally together in situations like this. And while Watt is a force, he's not the only reason the Texans are ranked fifth in the league in total defense. In fact, according to Rob Pizzola of PredictionMachine.com, the Texans' chances of beating the Titans on Sunday fell by less than three percent due to Watt's injury.

Smart pick

Houston has won the last four games in this series by an average score of 32.3-12.3, and while it might not win by 20 this week, all it needs to do is win by a touchdown. The smart money likes the Texans on the rebound.

Betting trends

The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Texans.

The Texans are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games against teams with losing records.

The Texans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 4.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.