North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds, Football Pick

Florida State owns a 22-game winning streak at Doak Campbell Stadium, going 12-8-1 against the spread in the process. The Seminoles shoot to extend that streak to 23—and stay alive in the ACC race—when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 12-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.2-23.6 Seminoles (college football picks on every game)

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

Following a season-opening loss to Georgia, the Heels have won three straight, including a 37-36 come-from-behind decision over Pittsburgh last week.

North Carolina fell down to the Panthers 12-0 in the second quarter and trailed 36-23 with 11 minutes to go. But the Heels pulled within one score with six minutes left.  With three minutes remaining, they drove 63 yards (converting three fourth downs along the way) and scored the game-winning touchdown on a short Mitch Trubisky touchdown pass to Bug Howard with just two seconds left on the clock.

North Carolina outgained Pittsburgh 471-421, led by Trubisky, who threw for 453 yards and five touchdowns. He's now completed 75 percent of his passes this season, and owns a 10-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Since losing to the Bulldogs, the Tar Heels have averaged 47 points per game, so they can score enough to keep this one close.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

FSU bounced back after that disastrous showing at Louisville two weeks ago to beat South Florida 55-35 last week, covering as a four-point favorite.

The Seminoles spotted the Bulls a touchdown on the first play of the game, then scored 45 of the next 52 points to take control. Florida State produced 647 yards of offense with 478 on the ground, as running back Dalvin Cook broke loose for 267 yards on 28 carries and a pair of scores, including a 75-yarder on FSU's first offensive play. The Seminoles also dominated time of possession by a 40-20 margin.

That's twice already this season Florida State has hit the 50-point mark.

The Seminoles started the year with that 45-34 come-from-behind victory over Ole Miss, which included an unlikely cover as four-point favorites, considering they trailed 28-6 at one point. That win looks even better now, considering how well the Rebels have looked since.

Smart pick

Cook found his groove last week and now goes against a North Carolina defense that just gave up 281 rushing yards. The team that wins the ground battle and makes the fewest mistakes should cover this spread. That's why the Seminoles are the smart choice here.

Betting trends

North Carolina is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games against Florida State.

Florida State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.

Florida State is 22-0 SU in its last 22 games at home.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.