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Bleacher Report's Expert College Football Predictions for Week 5
September 28, 2016Bleacher Report's Expert College Football Predictions for Week 5
How great is Week 5 in college football going to be?
There are three matchups involving Top 10 teams facing each other, another involving Top 25 teams and enough conference title intrigue to fill Death Valley—where third-ranked Louisville will visit No. 5 Clemson in a battle for front-runner status in the ACC Atlantic Division.
What will happen this weekend? Bleacher Report experts Adam Kramer, Barrett Sallee, Chris Walsh, Ben Axelrod, Greg Couch and Michael Felder break it down in this week's edition of "expert picks."
Will Washington Prove It Belongs vs. Stanford?
Adam Kramer
Yes. Obviously, last week’s potential blowout did not go as planned against Arizona, which demanded a full effort and more. And while Washington is by no means a perfect team, it’ll deliver a much more polished effort at home. It won’t be a blowout, and seeing how these two operate would lead one to believe it will likely be close and weird until the end.
Would a win mean Washington is poised for a playoff run? No. But it would validate some of the concerns coming off a lackluster showing against a team it should have beaten more convincingly. I say this despite the fact that picking against David Shaw in a game of this nature feels alarming.
Barrett Sallee
I'm going to reluctantly say "yes," mostly because it would be really weird if there was a blank space below my name. I bought into Washington wrecking shop at Arizona a week ago in this story, and in true #Pac12AfterDark fashion, the Huskies sleepwalked through their trip to Tucson.
I'll buy that defense shutting down Stanford enough at home on Friday night to pick Washington again, although—in all honesty—I was uncomfortable writing the previous 67 words.
Chris Walsh
The great thing about this game is that it will essentially stand alone on Friday night, so everyone will have the opportunity to see not only what might be the Pac-12’s showcase game this season, but also, Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey. Because of him, I’m going to say no. Washington is 4-0, but it hasn’t done anything yet to make me believe it can beat Stanford—even if the game is in Seattle.
Ben Axelrod
Unfortunately for the Huskies, I don't think so. Stanford showed some serious concerns against UCLA, particularly in the passing game, but it's hard for me to imagine the Cardinal putting out two shaky showings in consecutive weeks. If anything, I think this is an opportunity for McCaffrey to close the gap on Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson when it comes to this year's Heisman race.
Greg Couch
I am not a believer in Washington. I am not a believer in Washington. I am not a believer in Washington. Yes, I might have said that last week, and then it beat Arizona anyway. But the concept of bringing back a lot of people from an average team doesn't resonate.
On the other hand, college football coaching is all about player development. Maybe that's what we're seeing: great coaching. Beating Stanford would prove it. I just don't see it happening.
Michael Felder
Yes. For sure. I really like this Washington team, even after struggling with Arizona quarterback Brandon Dawkins. The Huskies will fare well against Stanford, since the prime directive is stopping McCaffrey. UCLA laid out a beautiful blueprint for stopping the best player in the West, and Washington will follow suit. Slow him down and get its wide receivers loose, and Washington has a shot to get a big win.
Will Lamar Jackson, Louisville Outperform Deshaun Watson, Clemson?
Kramer
Let me start by saying I have minimal confidence in the words I am about to write. I spent a few hours trying to think of how this game will go, and those few hours provided little. On that note, I am picking Clemson to beat the hottest program and hottest player in college football.
First off, the best is still out there for Deshaun Watson and the pieces around him. I also love what I have seen early on from the Clemson defense—especially the front seven—and it will slow down Lamar Jackson enough. What a glorious, beautiful game this will be. That much I know.
Sallee
This will be Watson's coming-out party—or the sequel to his coming-out party. The former Heisman Trophy finalist got off to a bit of a slow start this season, but a 300-yard passing game on the road Thursday night got the ball rolling. Watson will pick up steam this week with a Heisman-esque performance against the Cardinals and a win over Heisman favorite Lamar Jackson, vaulting Clemson further up the rankings.
Walsh
Jackson will outperform Watson statistically, yes, but Clemson will win the game due to its defense. The reason why Jackson will post better numbers is because the Cardinals will be behind, thus forcing Louisville to try and rely on him more and more as the game progresses. Clemson’s defense will do just enough for the Tigers to pull out a dramatic win.
Axelrod
While so much will and has been made about the quarterback battle, the reality is that this is a matchup between two entire rosters. From that standpoint, Clemson has a clear advantage—although one could have said the same thing about Florida State before the Cardinals crushed the 'Noles. More times than not, however, the more talented roster comes out on top. From that perspective, I'm taking the Tigers on Saturday.
Couch
First, Jackson was a curiosity; then, he humiliated Florida State and became serious. Watson is already firmly set as a star college player. But I don't think people fully accept what Jackson is doing. His passing is good, but no one can tackle him. That will include Clemson. So yes, Jackson will outperform Watson.
Felder
Statistically? Yes. I expect he puts up big numbers against the Tigers in spots. Chunk yardage plays as a result of miscues are going to create a stat line that is amazing. However, Watson will get the stat that matters: a win.
Georgia Tech was a great tuneup for this Clemson squad from an assignment football standpoint, and if it can stick to the idea of responsibilities, it can succeed where Florida State failed.
Does Michigan End Wisconsin's Run?
Kramer
Yes. I absolutely love what Wisconsin has done defensively. It also looks like quarterback Alex Hornibrook is going to be a really good player for some time. That said, Michigan will be too much.
While other offenses will undoubtedly receive more praise, I love the balance Michigan has found early on. The defense clearly is the strength of this team—and it will be against an offense that still has questions—but Michigan is also scoring points, and it will find a way to do so against one of the nation’s best defenses.
Sallee
That Wolverines defense is so good and just sucks the fight right out of seemingly every opponent. Michigan is a legitimate top five team in my eyes, with Wisconsin being one of those teams that I'm having a difficult time buying—last week's win notwithstanding. Is it the team that waxed Michigan State or the one that squeaked by Georgia State? It's probably somewhere closer to the former, but close won't be good enough to get past Michigan.
Walsh
Michigan is playing its fifth straight home game, and this is the first ranked opponent it’ll face, so this is the first real gauge of how good the Wolverines might be. They’ll finally have to start earning their status, but for once, Michigan will make headlines for something it does on the field rather than all the numerous sideshows.
Axelrod
Wisconsin is riding high coming off a big win over Michigan State, but anyone who watched that game knows it was done with a lot of smoke and mirrors and that the Spartans just might not be that good. Michigan, meanwhile, appears to just be hitting its stride and head coach Jim Harbaugh still has his secret weapon up his sleeve of using Jabrill Peppers on offense. This might just be the game to bust that out. I see Michigan in a lopsided affair here.
Couch
This is a big game for Michigan. The Wolverines and Harbaugh, really, are still all hype. Wisconsin beat LSU and crushed Michigan State. This is a tough one, but since it's in Ann Arbor, I'm going with Michigan. If Wisconsin is strong enough to push the Michigan offensive line back, then the Badgers become a serious College Football Playoff contender.
Felder
Michigan is the better version of Wisconsin, and with that in mind, the Wolverines will best the Badgers. Both teams are exceptionally well-coached and play disciplined assignment "do your job" football. Michigan just has a few better players, headlined by Jabrill Peppers, and that will be the difference. That said, there isn't a team in the country that gets pressure as well as Wisconsin does with four-man rushes. Beautiful football.
Can Georgia Rebound, or Will Tennessee Continue to Roll?
Kramer
Emotionally, this will be an enormous challenge for Tennessee. Beating a rival for the first time in a long time in the fashion in which it did will have some carryover into this week. That’s part of it. But I still don’t believe Tennessee is fixed or fully functional yet. Maybe I’m wrong.
I also believe that home field on top of a much different playing style to guard defensively will help Georgia out a great deal. Whether Bulldogs quarterback Jacob Eason can rally is another topic entirely, although I feel you’ll see a much different version of both teams. There is nothing that could possibly go wrong with this pick. Nope. Nothing at all.
Sallee
While I love Tennessee's veteran leadership, none of them have had the target on their backs in the way they have them now after finally getting over the Florida hump last week.
Meanwhile, Georgia is angry, frustrated and embarrassed, which should ratchet up its attention this week in preparation for the Vols. Eason will take advantage of the depleted Vols defense, confirm his status as a budding superstar and lead head coach Kirby Smart to his first rivalry win as a head coach.
Walsh
Considering how Tennessee celebrated after beating Florida and the way Georgia was humiliated at Ole Miss, this game had rebound written all over it. That the Bulldogs will be at home only adds to the potential for an upset, but running back Nick Chubb suffered a sprained ankle last week, and Tennessee will do everything to stop the running game. Consequently, look for the Vols to squeak out another win.
Axelrod
I still have reservations about trusting this Tennessee team, and this is a natural spot for a letdown. But last week's win over Florida was a step in the right direction—especially when taking into consideration the fashion in which it came. I'll take the Volunteers to continue to ride that momentum, especially against a Georgia team that has been largely unimpressive for the past four weeks.
Couch
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs and Tennessee are starting to look like the real thing. Nobody remembers this, but Butch Jones used to be a really good coach. Maybe he still is after all. Both teams have been so up-and-down this year: not from one week to the next so much as one quarter to the next.
I'm going to violate my personal rule, let my guard down and believe in Tennessee, but this feels like a setup. Recent history says the Vols are looking for their big moment to lay an egg.
Felder
No, Georgia is not good. Tennessee is a niche type of good that I enjoy. That niche is working Dobbs into the run game, and when the Vols do that, it creates huge opportunity pushing the ball vertically. Expect to see Tennessee do that against a Georgia team that Ole Miss just demolished. A 5-0 record will look good on Butch Jones and Co.
Does Oklahoma Start Big 12 Play Strong, or Will TCU Pull the Upset?
Kramer
The offensive statistics might say otherwise, although TCU still has some work to do. Oklahoma does as well, and I wonder how the Sooners defensive backs will handle a game like this. But Oklahoma isn't dead, and the bye week likely helped. It could not have come at a better time. This game is almost certain to have a lot of points, and I’ll say that head coach Bob Stoops calms the message-board madness for at least one weekend with a victory. Not pretty or perfect but a win nonetheless.
Sallee
I expect points a plenty in this game, with the majority of them coming by way of Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield and running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine. I don't trust TCU at all. Not even a little bit. The defense is average at best, which won't cut it against the Sooners. Quarterback Kenny Hill is far more volatile than Mayfield, which will make a huge difference in this shootout.
Walsh
Considering that Oklahoma’s losses are to Houston and Ohio State, the Sooners are probably better than their 1-2 record indicates, but they have to prove it. So that’s the extra motivation this week. Plus, Oklahoma is coming off a bye and had some extra time to correct things, so I'll roll with Bob Stoops.
Axelrod
It's tough to know what to make of this Oklahoma team considering how its losses have come and who they've come to, but for some reason, I'm still giving Mayfield the benefit of the doubt. I'll take Oklahoma in a close one. But the Big 12 is relatively irrelevant when it comes to the playoff picture right now.
Couch
Oklahoma was never as good as anyone was saying. Not even last year. But now people are swinging too far the other way against the Sooners. They are a good, solid team in a good, solid program. TCU still has a coach to believe in, but this team looks disappointing. Oklahoma wins.
Felder
Oklahoma isn't great. Neither is TCU. Oklahoma is slightly better, and that will be enough to win. It has a defense with a pulse, which so far this season cannot be said about TCU. I expect the Sooners to not only score points but also find some stops on defense, and that will be the difference.
Will Arizona State Put the Nail in USC's Coffin?
Kramer
No. Big, big bounce-back game coming from USC. Lost in the loss to Utah was the fact that quarterback Sam Darnold looked excellent. The offense, despite the turnovers, looked a lot better. USC went to a hostile place, played a solid team and barely was defeated. The Trojans should be expected to win these games with their advantage in talent. USC beats a quality Arizona State team at home and does so convincingly.
Sallee
No, not at all. In fact, I think this will be the beginning of the rebirth of USC football. USC got a case of fumblitis last week at Utah, but lost in the drama in that game was the fact that Darnold was pretty solid. The USC defense will hold Arizona State relatively in check, the offense will show more signs of life and the Trojans will get back on track with a big win.
Walsh
It's already there, but I don't think the Sun Devils will start shoveling the dirt on top. I actually covered Arizona State for a couple of seasons, and one thing that I figured out was that as soon as you think the Sun Devils are pretty good, they surprise you in a different way. They don’t do that as often now, but I don’t think they beat the Trojans on the road.
Axelrod
In my opinion, the nail is already shut for USC. I think the Trojans have enough talent and will win this one in a high scoring affair, but to me, the bloom is already off the rose in the Coach Clay Helton era. With LSU having already pulled the plug on Les Miles, I think it's only a matter of time before USC joins the Coach Tom Herman sweepstakes—even after a win this weekend.
Couch
It's a lot of work to dig up someone's coffin just to put another nail it. But no one is even paying attention to Arizona State again. I see lots of points and Trojans head coach Clay Helton saving his job for another week. The Trojans are looking like losers. That's not meant as a cheap shot but just to point out the team psyche. This time, though, take USC.
Felder
With Arizona State in town, I expect a score-fest. I'm glad the game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET, because if it started at 10:15 p.m., I'd be looking for a reason to quit this job. A lot of touchdowns, a lot of stoppages of play, a lot of reviews and a game that takes five hours—that's what I predict. The nail in my coffin.
Which Big Underdog Has the Best Chance of Pulling an Upset?
Kramer
On the smallish upset side, Georgia Tech could push Miami at home. Despite the fact the Yellow Jackets looked helpless on offense against Clemson, they’ll find more room here. And for a larger, more elaborate upset, let’s go to Ames, Iowa. It’s science. One time each season, Iowa State has to pull some magic at home. Against Baylor, a team it knows well, it will drum up some of that magic.
Sallee
Can we talk about Missouri for a second? Quarterback Drew Lock has 14 touchdown passes through four games, and the Tigers as a team had just 10 all of last season. Lock, receiver J'Mon Moore and the Tigers offense will put some points on the board at LSU and force interim head coach Ed Orgeron to put the game in the hands of quarterback Danny Etling. Will Coach "O" have more success than predecessor Les Miles did in the passing game? We're going to find out.
Walsh
I want to say North Carolina, but keep an eye on San Diego State at South Alabama. The heat in the South has been ridiculous, as has the humidity. The home team already has a big win at Mississippi State, and if the Aztecs aren’t careful, they could find themselves in a similar position, hoping for a field goal to escape with a win.
Axelrod
I'll go with Georgia Tech, which is about a touchdown underdog hosting Miami (Florida), according to Odds Shark. At this point, I don't know if I have enough faith in the Hurricanes and could see them getting caught looking ahead to a much sexier game against Florida State a week later. Factor in the fact the Yellow Jackets have had 10 days off thanks to last week's Thursday night game against Clemson, and this is a matchup I have my eye on.
Couch
I was one of the early ones to believe in Miami. Mark Richt is an excellent coach, no matter how he left Georgia, and he has a quarterback and some athleticism. Now, everyone is on board, and with public perception, it's starting to creep into the area of a national program already. That's a fast turn. Georgia Tech isn't going to the playoff but shouldn't be demoralized from last week. That's the upset of the day.
Felder
Memphis against Ole Miss. I don't think a lot of fans realize just how connected these schools happen to be or how good Memphis is at moving the ball. Riley Ferguson is my dude—interviewed him back when he was a young high school quarterback forced into action—and he'll find some success against Ole Miss.
The Tigers will put a scare in Ole Miss early, but the Rebels should win and still hate themselves for giving away that Alabama game.