John Dodson vs. John Lineker: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Two former 125-pound contenders who never met in the flyweight division will now meet in the main event of UFC Fight Night 96 in the hopes of becoming title contenders at bantamweight.
John Lineker meets John Dodson is a bout MMA fans will be salivating over on Saturday.
Every aspect of this fight is close to call. It's an elite-level matchup of two of the most exciting fighters in the world. A true can't-miss fight. Only one can move up the ladder in the main event.
Who walks into title contention with a victory on Saturday?
Striking
1 of 5
Let's begin with an admission that we are splitting hairs here. There isn't a definitive advantage to one side or the other.
Lineker has incredible power and fantastic technical boxing. Dodson has blistering speed to blitz his opponents. Each man has a wealth of experience and plenty of knockout finishes.
The scale leans toward Lineker just a touch more than Dodson. His granite chin and volume gives him the edge. FightMetric breaks down their averages, and it shows Lineker's 5.68 significant strikes per minute has the edge (it is also tied for ninth-most in UFC history, per FightMetric).
Who wins the stand-up battles on Saturday will largely be determined by the pace of the action. If Dodson can crank up the action to 11, he'll have an advantage to dart in and out while outworking Lineker. But if Lineker can walk him down ... c'est la vie.
Edge: Lineker
Grappling
2 of 5
Lineker isn't a slouch with his grappling, but Dodson has a decisive edge in the category.
Lineker rarely goes for takedowns, but when he does he is often effective. It's just not what he prefers to do. However, taking down Dodson is an entirely different ask. Dodson posts some of the best balance in the flyweight and bantamweight divisions.
What makes Dodson more effective as a grappler is how he blends his striking and grappling together. His Jackson-Winkeljohn teachings are very much on display with his grappling skills.
Grappling, both against the cage and on the ground, will be important keys to Dodson's path to victory. Lineker has shown to slow in fights. His cardio is markedly better at 135 pounds, but Dodson's pace is still something he cannot match for five grueling rounds.
Edge: Dodson
Submissions
3 of 5
This may surprise a few, then again it may not, but I am giving Lineker the edge with submissions.
The MMA world applauds his veracious striking, but he can submit fighters too. Ask Francisco Rivera. Lineker is a competent jiu-jitsu artist who can surprise his foes.
Dodson has excellent abilities on the ground as well, to be sure, but Lineker's defense will force the American to seek out ground-and-pound instead of submissions.
The expectation for a submission is low in this fight, but Lineker gets a check mark beside his name for having the edge. Lightly. In pencil.
Edge: Lineker
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X-Factors
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Dodson's X-Factor: Tempo
Setting the tempo is not merely important to sap Lineker of his energy, but it is important to allow Dodson to fight his style of fighting.
A high-paced bout favors Dodson's entire game. He can get off more strikes, go for more takedowns and force Lineker to chase him around the Octagon. It's a completely different fight if Dodson can push the pace. A slow pace falls right into the concrete hands of his opponent.
Lineker's X-Factor: Cutting Off the Cage
Dodson is a speedster, and his speed allows him to get out of danger quickly. Lineker needs to limit his space and force him to fight standing toe-to-toe.
Cutting off the cage will be crucial to giving Lineker the opportunities to land his crushing blows.
Prediction
5 of 5
Stay glued to your seat and watch with baited breath — Dodson and Lineker are going to bring it.
Almost anything can happen in this fight. They are exceptional athletes skilled in each facet of MMA, and neither man backs down.
Pushed into a corner, I'll take Dodson. He has all the tools, but better yet all the coaching, to out-gun Lineker. Dodson avoids getting backed into a corner throughout the first round. In fact, he may put Lineker on his heels by coming forward. And against the cage, Lineker's power slowly slips away.
A successful third-round takedown will lead to Dodson finishing the fight with ground-and-pound. Lineker won't be put out cold, but he won't be able to fight back to a position that keeps the referee from stopping the bout as Dodson rains down blows.
Prediction: Dodson defeats Lineker by TKO in the third round.
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