Florida State Seminoles vs. USF Bulls Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Florida State is 2-1 straight up in its three matchups with its little brother down at South Florida but 0-3 against the spread as the Bulls have given the Seminoles decent games. Coming off one of the worst losses in program history, FSU looks to bounce back when it visits USF on Saturday afternoon in Tampa.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 5.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.4-29.2 Bulls (college football picks on every game)

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

Sometimes things happens to teams that can't be explained, and that's the way Florida State should think about last week's 63-20 loss at Louisville. Accept it, learn from it, move on.

Before last week, the Seminoles (and many others) thought they had a pretty good team. FSU opened this season with that come-from-behind 45-34 victory over Ole Miss, covering as four-point favorites. Then whipped Charleston Southern 52-8.

The Seminoles were without safety Derwin James last week, as he nurses a bad knee, but he wouldn't have made that much of a difference anyway. FSU just ran into a 60-minute buzzsaw.

But over recent seasons, Florida State has shown the ability to bounce back from defeat: Going back to 2011, the Seminoles are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their next games following a loss.

Why the USF Bulls can cover the spread

USF is 3-0 both SU and ATS on the season after winning at Syracuse last week 45-20 and covering as a 13-point road favorite. The Bulls actually fell down to the Orange 17-0 in the first quarter, then scored four touchdowns in the second quarter to take a 28-17 lead into halftime. They let Syracuse get within one score late in the third, but they scored the last 17 points of the game to secure the victory and the cash.

Led by 115 yards from running back Marlon Mack, who is shooting for his third straight 1,000-yard season, South Florida outrushed the Orange 234-199. And dangerous D'Ernest Johnson returned a punt 83 yards for a touchdown.

USF opened its season with a 56-20 victory over Towson, covering 27 points, then beat Northern Illinois 48-17, covering 14 points. And while the Bulls' long-term goal this season is an AAC championship, their Super Bowl is Saturday.

Smart pick

Florida State is embarrassed after last week's performance, and the only way to cure that is to go out and kick somebody else. The Seminoles are still a Top 15 team, and they've shown an ability to rebound after defeats. Also, they're playing on the road, where the spread is a little friendlier. South Florida might have a nice thing going at the moment, but the smart money here sides with FSU.

Betting trends

Florida State is 0-3 ATS in its last three games against South Florida.

South Florida is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games in September.

The total has gone under in six of Florida State's last seven games on the road.

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.