Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The Baylor Bears continue to run into a problem that can plague the best teams in college football: They're so often favored by so much, that even when they win, they can't cover the spread.

Baylor is 7-3 straight up over its last 10 games, stretching back into last season, but only 2-8 against the spread. The Bears will give at least a touchdown on the spread when they host Oklahoma State in a big game in the Big 12 on Saturday night in Waco. 

Point spread: The Bears opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.6-31.6 Bears (college football picks on every game)

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread 

These Cowboys are 2-1 both SU and ATS on the season, following their 45-38 victory over Pittsburgh last week. Oklahoma State, as a three-point favorite, scored on the first play from scrimmage with a 91-yard Mason Rudolph-to-James Washington connection. It later led by two touchdowns and then allowed the Panthers to tie the game late in the third quarter, but it won on Rennie Childs' one-yard plunge with just over a minute to go.

On the day, OSU racked up 640 yards of offense, and the junior quarterback Rudolph threw for a school-record 540 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

Oklahoma State opened this season with a 61-7 win over Southeastern Louisiana, covering as a seven-touchdown favorite, then lost at home to Central Michigan 30-27. But that defeat to the Chippewas should not have come down to a blown call by the refs; the Cowboys led that game 14-0 out of the gate.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor is 3-0 on the season after last week's 38-10 victory at Rice. The Bears spotted the Owls an early 3-0 lead and only led 14-10 late into the second quarter, but they scored the last 24 points of the game to lock down the win.

On the night, Baylor outgained Rice 638-265, rushing for 296 yards and passing for 342 more.

The Bears opened this season with a 55-7 walkthrough against Northwestern State and a 40-13 socking of SMU.

Finally, Baylor has beaten the Cowboys each of the last two seasons, putting up 49 and 45 points and piling up almost 1,300 yards of offense in the two games combined.

Smart pick

The Bears are once again piling up yardage and the points, but they're not quite the team from a couple of seasons ago that was just clobbering opponents. They actually struggled a bit with SMU, and even Rice played them tough well into the third quarter. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, should be 3-0, and showed some maturity with its win over Pitt last week. Baylor might still win this game, but the Cowboys are perfectly capable of not just keeping this one close, but also pulling off an upset.

Betting trends

Oklahoma State is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games against Baylor.

Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against Baylor.

Baylor is 25-5 SU in its last 30 games against its conference.

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.