Duke Blue Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Odds, Football Pick

The Duke Blue Devils aren't exactly known as road warriors, but they are 13-4 straight up and 12-5 against the spread over their last 17 games away from home. Duke faces a stiff road test this week as it heads up to South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 20-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.0-25.1 Fighting Irish (college football picks on every game)

Why the Duke Blue Devils can cover the spread

The Blue Devils opened this season well enough, beating North Carolina Central 49-6, but they have lost two tough ones in a row since then. First, Duke fell to Wake Forest 24-14, allowing the Demon Deacons to score the last 10 points of the game. Then last week, the Devils fell at Northwestern 24-13.

Duke spotted the Wildcats an early touchdown but tied the score at 7-7 on a Jela Duncan four-yard touchdown run shortly before halftime. Things stayed that way until late in the third quarter, when the Blue Devils gave up 10 points in a five-minute span, creating a deficit from which they couldn't recover.

Northwestern outgained Duke by a 406-396 margin, while Duke won the ground battle 117-86. But the Blue Devils defense gave up two scores on long pass plays.

Duke quarterback Daniel Jones has thrown for more than 600 yards over the last two games combined; the Devils just don't have much to show for it.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish are in bounce-back mode after falling at home to Michigan State last week 36-28. Notre Dame grabbed a 7-0 first-quarter lead on a DeShone Kizer 14-yard scoring run, but sloppy special teams play by the Irish led to a 36-0 Spartans run into the third quarter. Notre Dame wasn't dead yet, though, scoring three times over the next 12 minutes to pull within one score with plenty of time left on the clock. Unfortunately, that's as close as the Irish could get, as they suffered just their fourth home defeat over the past four-plus seasons.

Kizer threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns and ran for two more scores. He's now accounted for 13 touchdowns already this season. Notre Dame opened this season with that crazy double-overtime loss at Texas and then knocked off Nevada 39-10.

Smart pick

The Irish are likely to win this game outright; it's just a matter of by how much. Yes, the spread on this game is probably inflated by three or four points toward home-standing Notre Dame, but Duke, which saw its starting quarterback go down and out to injury before the season even started, has lost to Wake Forest and Northwestern. And unfortunately for the Blue Devils, that says something. The smart money here sides with the Irish.

Betting trends

Notre Dame is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after a loss.

Notre Dame is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at home.

Duke is 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games on the road.

All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.