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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 16, 2016

San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (28) rushes for yardage in front of Jacksonville Jaguars strong safety Johnathan Cyprien (37) during the first half of an NFL football game in Jacksonville, Fla., Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Thanks to their recent divisional finishes and the NFL schedule formula, the San Diego Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars have met three seasons in a row and five times over the last six seasons. As it so happens, the Chargers have won all five of those meetings both straight up and against the spread. They will hope to extend that streak when they host the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

          

Point spread: The Chargers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, per the Odds Shark computer: 25.8-15.4 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

         

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville is coming off a tough 27-23 home loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. The Jags spotted the Packers the game's first touchdown but battled back to take a 10-7 lead. They also led 17-14 until Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers fought off a potential sack and heaved a 29-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams just before halftime. Later, Jacksonville pulled to within 27-23 with five minutes to go and reached the Packers' 14-yard line in the last half-minute, but it ran out of downs.

On the day, Jacksonville outgained Green Bay 348-294, but the game's lone turnover, a Blake Bortles interception in the first quarter that led to a Packers touchdown, made all the difference.

Bortles finished 24-for-39 passing for 320 yards and a touchdown against the one interception, and the three-headed receiving combo of Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and tight end Julius Thomas collected 15 balls for over 200 yards. Meanwhile, the Jaguars defense limited the Green Bay running game to 95 yards on 25 carries, and 28 of those yards came on one play.

        

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego would be 1-0 on the season if it hadn't blown a big lead and lost in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs last week 33-27. Little solace to the Chargers, but at least their financial backers cashed in on a seven-point spread.

San Diego spotted the Chiefs an early field goal but then scored 24 straight points to lead by 21 with just 21 minutes left in the game. But a bad coaching decision, electing to try a long field goal instead of protecting the lead with a punt, turned the whole game around. The kick missed, and Kansas City took advantage, going on a 17-0 run to force overtime. The Chargers then lost the coin toss and, disheartened, allowed KC to drive 70 yards for the game-winning score.

For the day, San Diego got outgained 413-388, but the vast majority of the Chiefs' yardage came in comeback mode. The Chargers did outrush Kansas City 155-83.

Last year, San Diego flew cross-country and beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville 31-25, with quarterback Philip Rivers tossing four touchdown passes.

        

Smart pick

Both teams are coming off tough losses, but it's hard to figure how San Diego recovers. On top of that, the Chargers lost wide receiver Keenan Allen to a torn ACL. San Diego has a stench about it, and it probably won't fade until it makes a change at head coach or moves to another city. At least Jacksonville thinks it sees light at the end of the tunnel. Don't mind the travel; take the Jags.

         

Betting trends

The Jaguars are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Chargers, per the Odds Shark NFL Database.

The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.

The Chargers are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games.

        

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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