Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots managed to win their season opener without quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski, and they will try to claim another victory in their first home game on Sunday when they host the Miami Dolphins as solid home favorites.

Brady’s replacement, Jimmy Garoppolo, sparked New England to a 23-21 road victory against the Arizona Cardinals in his first career start, and he will look to stay perfect in this key divisional matchup at Gillette Stadium.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as five-point favorites. The total was 43 early in the week.

Odds Shark computer pick: Patriots 25, Dolphins 14.1 (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are coming off a tough 12-10 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks in their season opener but managed to easily cover the spread as double-digit-point underdogs.

They harassed Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson all day and nearly pulled off the upset if not for some late heroics that saw their opponent score the game-winning touchdown with 31 seconds remaining.

Still, it was a solid first game under new head coach Adam Gase, who will look to lead Miami to its third straight cover and second consecutive win over the Patriots after beating them 20-10 as 10-point home dogs in Week 17 of last year.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England got an outstanding defensive effort at Arizona and was also fortunate that kicker Chandler Catanzaro missed a 47-yard field goal at the end. But you simply cannot overstate the quality of Garoppolo’s play on the road, as he completed 24 of 33 passes for 264 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.

He spread out his passes to six different receivers and made sure the Cardinals respected the running game too.

It was a good performance, and head coach Bill Belichick very rarely loses to the same team twice in a row. The Pats have won 10 consecutive games when losing the previous meeting, going 8-1-1 against the spread, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.

Smart pick

Miami must start the season by visiting two of the best teams in the NFL and will be hard-pressed to duplicate last week’s defensive effort. Wilson was bothered by an ankle injury, which limited him severely and kept the Seahawks from scoring much.

New England does not want this to be a low-scoring affair and will look to reach the end zone early and often. Take the Pats to exact some revenge and win this one by double digits.

Betting trends

• The Dolphins are 3-9 straight up in their last 12 games against the Patriots.
• The Patriots are 7-0 SU in their last seven games after winning as an underdog.
• The Dolphins are 1-5 SU in their last six games against teams with winning records.

All betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, Odds Shark on YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.