Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting Odds, Football Pick

Florida State is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread in two meetings with Louisville since the teams became ACC rivals, including that wild come-from-behind victory/cover two seasons ago. The Seminoles shoot to make it three in a row over the Cardinals when the teams meet for a big early-season Atlantic Division bout Saturday afternoon at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.2-31.4 Cardinals (College football picks on every game)

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

The Seminoles are 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS on the season after disposing of a short-handed Charleston Southern squad last week 52-8. Florida State scored touchdowns on four of five first-half possessions and returned a punt for a touchdown, taking a 35-6 lead into the break.

The Seminoles eased off a bit in the second half, but that didn't mean much to bettors, because there was no line on that game. On the day, FSU outgained the Buccaneers 438-294.

Seminoles quarterback Deondre Francois, a redshirt freshman, completed 25 of 32 passes for 262 yards, three touchdowns and one interception last week. Through two games, he's hit on 58 of 84 throws, good for 69 percent.

The Seminoles opened this season with a rousing 45-34 victory over Ole Miss, covering as four-point favorites after trailing 28-6 in the second quarter.

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

Louisville is 2-0 both SU and ATS this season after slamming Syracuse last week 62-28, covering as a 17-point road favorite. The Cardinals scored on their first three possessions to take a 21-0 lead five minutes into the game. Later, after allowing the Orange to score 28 points, the Cardinals won the fourth quarter 20-0.

Louisville set a new ACC record on the night with 845 yards of offense, as sophomore quarterback (and sudden Heisman Trophy candidate) Lamar Jackson accounted for 610 yards from scrimmage—411 through the air, 199 on the ground—and five total touchdowns. Through two games, Jackson has tallied over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns.

Two weeks ago, the Cardinals opened their season with a 70-14 romp over Charlotte, covering 38 points.

Smart pick

This one is probably a must-win for these teams if they want to win the ACC and possibly earn a berth in the College Football Playoff. Playing at home, Louisville will be all fired up. But sometimes that can work against a home team in a big game—emotion can get in the way. As for Florida State, playing on the road means the spread is more amenable. The smart money here sides with the Seminoles.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Louisville's last seven games.

Louisville is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against its conference.

Florida State is 28-2 SU in its last 30 games against its conference.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.