NFL Weekly Spread/Score Picks: Week Four

After a few weeks off, I'm back with a late edition of my NFL Week Four picks.

Each game includes a sentence or two of summary, a projected score, and the betting/spread pick. A couple games are also selected each week as "Locks of the Week" or "Upsets of the week".

I'm a measly 25-23 against the spread so far, but I hope that will change soon with a revision of my formula for spread picks.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

The Lions are energized after last week's win, but the Bears need a win to keep up with the division. The surprising Lions defense does well again, but the inexperience of the Detroit offense will cause them to lose the game by a touchdown.

Lions 14, Bears 21

Spread: Lions +10

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

The quarterback situation in Cleveland is awful, the running game is dead, and the defense will be shredded apart by both Palmer and Benson. Browns lose in a rout at home, another step on their way towards a 2-14 season.

Bengals 30, Browns 10...Lock of the Week Number One

Spread: Bengals -6

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans

The Texans are probably one of the most confusing teams in the league right now. They upset the Titans, but then fall to Jacksonville. However, Oakland is just the opposite. Everyone's pretty sure about how bad they are.

Raiders 17, Texans 34

Spread: Texans -8.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Even with Hasselbeck not playing, I can give the Seahawks credit for a decent offense with Carlson, Burleson, and Julius Jones. Still, though, the Seattle defense is too choppy to keep up with Manning and the Colts passing game.

Seahawks 20, Colts 28

Spread: Seahawks +10.5

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew might have something else to say, but the Titans are too desperate for a win to stay alive for them to lose today against a mediocre opponent.

Titans win in a nail-biter, 27-23.

Titans 27, Jaguars 23

Spread: Titans -3 in a toss-up

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs

Eli Manning continues his streak of spreading around the passes to playmakers Smith, Manningham, and Nicks, and Brandon Jacobs finally catches on. Giants score 40+, dominate struggling Kansas City.

Giants 42, Chiefs 13...Lock of the Week No. 2

Spread: Giants 8.5

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

This is probably the best matchup we've had yet this season in 2009, and it's going to feel like it. I think Brady will finally get his juices running again, but the Ravens will continue their shocking offensive production for a last-minute rally to win.

Ravens 30, Patriots 28

Spread: Ravens +2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins

This is the most depressing matchup of the week by far, and, just like the game above, it's going to feel like it. In the end, though, the Bucs running game finally gets going and Washington suffers another miserable defeat.

Buccaneers 23, Redskins 17...Upset of the Week Number One

Spread: Bucs +7.5

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

After last season's 11-5 record, it's surprising to see the Dolphins 0-3, but the truth is that they're really just not that good. Still, the three losses were all against good teams.

Buffalo is their first break, but I don't have enough confidence in Chad Henne to call a win for the 'Fins here.

Bills 27, Dolphins 21

Spread: Bills -1

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints

It's the going to be the most hostile place Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has ever played in his life, and it's the most pressure he's probably ever felt, either. Drew Brees will end up making the difference a tight, exciting game. However, the Jets will cover.

Jets 20, Saints 24

Spread: Jets +7

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos

A lot of expects are calling the Broncos not deserving of their 3-0 record, rightfully so, but I'm not convinced that Denver is as overrated as they say. Dallas will struggle in the first half like they did against Carolina, but in the end experience will make the difference as the Cowboys will rally for a tremendous win.

Cowboys 28, Broncos 27

Spread: Complete toss-up

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

I don't know how the 49ers do it, but so far they've looked like a pretty good team. On the other hand, St. Louis hasn't exactly looked quite the same. 49ers win, but it's not the blowout expected.

Rams 13, 49ers 24

Spread: 49ers -9.5 in a toss-up

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 1-2. Shocking, huh? Not really. They are just not quite the team they were last year, and a loss today would start to get Steelers fans worried about what I just said. Phillip Rivers is too talented to fall again in Pittsburgh.

Chargers 28, Steelers 21...Upset of the Week Number Two

Spread: Chargers +6 easily

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson vs. Ryan Grant. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian vs. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Ryan Longwell vs. Mason Crosby. I think that's it...oh, yeah, I forgot one. Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers.

Edge=Packers. No heroics this time, Brett.

Packers 26, Vikings 24

Spread: Packers +3.5

Feel free to post your opinions by commenting, sending me an email, or posting a note on my bulletin board. Edits are also appreciated.