Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers begin another season of high expectations as road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. The Packers are expected to win the NFC North, especially with the Minnesota Vikings losing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the year, while the Jaguars have hopes of a winning record in 2016.

Point spread: Packers opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.3-15.6 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay has gone 10-3 straight up in its past 13 games as road chalk, and this will be a good test right out of the gate versus an upstart Jacksonville team. The Packers had a disappointing campaign last year without top receiver Jordy Nelson (torn ACL) and lost the division title to the Vikings in the regular-season finale at home.

They still were able to win a playoff game against the Washington Redskins though and will be primed to go even further this year as one of the Super Bowl favorites out of the NFC.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars have covered the spread in the past three meetings with Green Bay and continue to improve both offensively and defensively under fourth-year head coach Gus Bradley. Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles is in his third year and threw for 4,428 yards with 35 touchdowns and 18 interceptions last season.

To put that into perspective, Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,434 yards with 30 touchdowns and seven picks for the Packers in his second year as a starter. Bortles might even have better weapons than Rodgers now, which should be able to keep the Jags close in this one.

Smart pick

The over has cashed in five of Jacksonville's past seven games as an underdog according to the Odds Shark NFL Database, and Bortles will be able to pick apart a suspect Green Bay secondary here. Whether or not the Jags can pull off the upset remains to be seen, but they will have a shot in what should be a high-scoring affair.

The Packers also will be able to score a lot of points, so look for Rodgers and Bortles to trade off touchdown drives throughout as the total easily finishes over.

Betting trends

The Packers are 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 1.

The Jaguars are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games against the NFC.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.