Virginia Cavaliers vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Even as Virginia has struggled over recent seasons, it's managed to go 8-2-1 against the spread its past 11 times out as an underdog, and 9-0 ATS the past nine times it's been lined as a double-digit dog. UVA falls into that spot again when it pays a cross-country visit to Oregon on Saturday night at 10:30 p.m. ET in Eugene.

Point spread: Ducks opened as 20.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 48.2-21.0 Ducks (College football picks on every game)

Why the Virginia Cavaliers can cover the spread

The Cavs began the Bronco Mendenhall era with a disappointing 37-20 loss at home to Richmond last Saturday. Virginia trailed 13-0 off the bat, but scored early in the second quarter to pull to 13-7. Later, down 16-7 in the third, the Cavs drove inside the Spiders' 35-yard line, only to come up a yard short on a 4th-and-4. A few minutes later UVA reached the Richmond 40, only to have quarter Kurt Benkert throw an interception. And a few minutes after that the Cavs again poked their nose inside Spiders' territory, but lost a fumble, spelling the end of any comeback hopes.

Benkert, a transfer from East Carolina, was actually one of the few bright spots for Virginia last week, completing 26 of 34 passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns, against just that one pick.

The Cavaliers returned 12 starters this year, six on each side of the ball, from a team that finished 4-8 last season. But five of those defeats came by seven points or less, and they finished 8-4 ATS.

Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

Oregon opened its season last Saturday with a 53-28 defeat of UC Davis. The Ducks spotted the Aggies the game's first touchdown five minutes in, then scored the next 33 points to take control. UCD scored three times after that, but Oregon responded each time with immediate touchdown drives. On the evening the Ducks outgained the Aggies 522-392, and a lot of UCD's yardage came in garbage time.

New Oregon quarterback Dakota Prukop, a senior graduate transfer who made FCS All-American at Montana State last year, hit on 21 of 30 throws for 271 yards and three touchdowns in his first game for his new team, and ran for another score. And wide receiver Darren Carrington caught seven balls for 117 yards and a touchdown.

The Ducks only returned 11 starters this season, but they should come close to the 43 points per game they averaged last year, and almost assuredly will improve upon the 38 points per game they allowed.

Smart pick

The winner of this game isn't in much doubt; the Ducks just outclass the Cavs at the moment. And with Oregon playing slightly below the radar right now the spread isn't as prohibitive as it might have been in the recent past. Plus, Virginia is playing 3,000 miles from home, and three hours behind normal. Mendenhall might eventually turn the Cavaliers around, but the Ducks are the smart bet in this spot.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Oregon's last eight games in Week 2.

Oregon is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games after a win.

Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.