WKU Hilltoppers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The problem with betting on some of college football's heavies is that they're always favored by so much, especially when they play at home. Case in point: Alabama, which is just 3-7 against the spread over its last 10 home games. The Tide will play as big home favorites again when they host Western Kentucky on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa.

Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 24-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 45.0-31.8 Crimson Tide (college football picks on every game)

Why the WKU Hilltoppers can cover the spread

The Hilltoppers opened this season with a 46-14 victory over Rice last Thursday, covering as 19-point favorites. Western Kentucky blocked a punt two minutes into the game for a safety, led 16-0 after one quarter and cruised from there. On the night, the Hilltoppers outgained the Owls 649-288. Transfer quarterback Mike White, making his first start for his new team, hit on 25 of 31 throws for 517 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.

WKU returned 12 starters this season from a team that went 12-2 last year. The largest hole to fill came at quarterback, but if White plays like that all season, the Hilltoppers should be in great shape. Also, the last time they played an SEC opponent came last year, when they lost to LSU 48-20. But that game was closer than that final score might indicate.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide began defense of their national championship of a season ago by rolling over USC last Saturday 52-6, easily covering as two-touchdown favorites. Alabama actually trailed the Trojans 3-0 midway into the second quarter. It then scored 17 points in five minutes to take control and put things away with three third-quarter scores. On the night, the Tide outgained USC 465-194, piling up 242 yards on the ground and 223 through the air.

Two Alabama quarterbacks, true freshman Jalen Hurts and redshirt freshman Blake Barnett, combined to complete 11 of 17 throws with three touchdown passes, and Hurts ran for two more scores. Meanwhile, running back Damien Harris, trying to replace the departed Derrick Henry, ran for 138 yards on just nine carries.

The Tide had to replace 11 starters heading into this season but didn't look like they missed them much last week.

Smart pick

There's not much doubt as to the winner of this game; the only unknown is the final margin. The Tide have holes to fill this year, but a ton of talent is waiting for its chance. However, Alabama has been known to take its foot off the gas under head coach Nick Saban, especially against supposedly lesser foes. On his watch, Alabama is just 5-10 ATS against non-Power Five schools. The Tide will win this game, but the smart wager here is Western Kentucky, plus the points.

Betting trends

Alabama is 13-0 SU in its last 13 games.

Alabama is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games at home.

Western Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after a win.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.